The Arizona Diamondbacks (47%) have been one of the most successful home teams in the majors, winning 40 of 69 games at home.
My Phillies vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks expect their home cooking to continue in tonight's series opener on Aug. 31.
First pitch is set for 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field.
Who will win Phillies vs Diamondbacks today: Diamondbacks (47%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Aaron Nola’s improved results over the past six starts coincide with a steep decrease in opponent quality.
Each team he faced is sub .500 and on the outside of the playoff picture. He has faced only three playoff teams since June 6, and they've scored 13 runs over just 14 1/3 innings.
The Arizona Diamondbacks represent a step up in class from what Nola has seen of late. They’re nearly 10 games over .500 and sit ninth in xwOBA vs. righties this month.
They should provide Brandon Pfaadt enough support to pull off the upset. Play to 51%.
COVERS INTEL: Pfaadt has allowed 0.82 HR/9 at home. His strong power suppression will be very useful against a Phillies squad sitting 11th in homers.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (53%)
Pfaadt has gotten touched up the last couple of starts, but his underlying profile remains very strong.
He’s allowed hard contact just 27.3% of the time over the past 30 days. He has also posted a 4.3% barrel rate, both of which rank him second among today’s starting pitchers.
His ability to limit quality contact will serve him well against a powerful Philadelphia Phillies lineup. While Nola has benefited from a soft schedule, he has taken full advantage with a 3.14 SIERA in his past five starts.
The pitching should be good, making the Under an appealing buy to 55%.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks home run prediction: Corbin Carroll (16%)
Nola has allowed more power to lefties than righties, and Corbin Carroll is well equipped to do damage against what he throws.
Nola relies most heavily on the knuckle curve, also throwing fastballs and changeups at a healthy rate.
Carroll has a .300 ISO and 50% hard-hit rate against the knuckle curve — albeit over a small sample — and ISOs above .230 facing the other two pitches.
Carroll’s average exit velocity and barrel rate against Nola’s mix have also risen over his last 25 at-bats.
- ML/RL bets: 95-86, -10.70 units
- Over/Under bets: 92-83-6, -2.83 units
Phillies vs Diamondbacks weather
Game will be played indoors.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks odds
- Moneyline: Phillies 54% | Diamondbacks 47%
- Run line: Phillies -1.5 (40%) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (61%)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (48%) | Under 8.5 (53%)
Phillies vs Diamondbacks trend
Arizona has hit the moneyline in 27 of the last 45 games (+11.40 units, 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Phillies vs Diamondbacks and game info
| Location | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Monday, Aug. 31, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSP, DBacks.TV |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Aaron Nola (5-10, 5.03 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Brandon Pfaadt (7-1, 3.51 ERA) |
Phillies vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
