The Milwaukee Brewers host the Philadelphia Phillies in the final matchup of this three-game series at American Family Field. MLB odds list Milwaukee as a -130 favorite, while the total sits at 8.
My Phillies vs. Brewers prediction targets the Under in this National League contest with two aces on the bump.
Read on for my MLB picks for Thursday, September 4.
Phillies vs Brewers prediction
Phillies vs Brewers best bet: Under 8 (-119)
There is no denying that these are two of the best lineups in baseball. That said, Thursday’s starting pitchers are capable of handling the task.
The Milwaukee Brewers hand the ball to right-hander Freddy Peralta, who is likely to be a finalist for the National League Cy Young Award. Through 28 starts this season, Peralta is 16-5 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally impressive. Entering this matchup, the right-hander ranks in the 74th percentile in expected ERA (xERA), 84th percentile in expected batting average (xBA), 85th percentile in average exit velocity, and 93rd percentile in hard-hit rate.
This success is likely to continue against the Philadelphia Phillies, a team Peralta boasts a 1.83 ERA and 0.81 WHIP against over the past four meetings.
Meanwhile, left-hander Ranger Suárez is likely to keep pace for the Phillies. Suárez is 10-6 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through 21 appearances on the mound.
Like Peralta, Suárez’s analytics are strong, as he ranks in the 86th percentile or higher in xERA, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Phillies vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Peralta’s greatest strength is his ability to generate swings and misses. This season, the right-hander ranks in the 80th percentile in both whiff rate and strikeout rate.
This has frustrated hitters like Philadelphia’s Alec Bohm, who carries a .143 batting average and three strikeouts through eight plate appearances against Peralta.
Phillies vs Brewers odds
- Moneyline: Philadelphia +110 | Milwaukee -130
- Run line: Philadelphia +1.5 | Milwaukee -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Phillies vs Brewers trend
There have been seven or fewer total runs scored in four of Suarez’s past five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Brewers.
How to watch Phillies vs Brewers and game info
| Location | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Thursday, August 4, 2025 |
| First pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Ranger Suarez (10-6, 3.02 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Freddy Peralta (16-5, 2.58 ERA) |
Phillies vs Brewers latest injuries
Phillies vs Brewers weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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