Phillies vs Braves Predictions, Picks, Odds: Dodd is Fodder for Philly Lineup

The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves will meet for the first time since the 2022 NLDS, where tonight’s visitors took three of the four games on their way to a World Series appearance. 

Tonight is the first of a four-game set at Truist Park, and will pit Aaron Nola vs. minor-league call-up Dylan Dodd, where MLB odds makers have this as a pick ‘em with a total of 9.5 leaning to the Under.

Dodd will be making his fourth MLB start, and has not pitched well all year. That includes his work in Triple-A, where he has a 6.67 ERA. He has a tough matchup in good hitting weather, and is a great target to fade on Thursday night.

Find out where my best bet lies in our MLB picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Braves on Thursday, May 25.

Phillies vs Braves odds

Phillies vs Braves predictions

Atlanta Braves starter Dylan Dodd has just seven strikeouts over 15.1 innings of work with the big club and doesn't miss many bats. He sits low 90s with his fastball and doesn’t project as big-league K/9 pitcher, as most respected projections have him as low-7 K/9 pitcher at the MLB level.

The rookie left-hander also doesn’t project to have a long leash tonight, and hasn’t touched the 90-pitch mark over his three MLB starts. THE BAT project 88 pitches from Dodd.

The Philadelphia Phillies' high K% is baked into Dodd’s strikeout total, which sits at 3.5 and is paying +125 for the Under. However, this lineup can chase the lefty. Dodd has given up 24 hits, and batters are hitting .361 off of him with a .991 OPS. 

Dodd is a low-strikeout pitcher who has been getting hit hard and often to begin his MLB career. This is a low strikeout total, but the leash is short with Dodd. He has yet to hit four punchouts in a start, and only went four innings in his latest MiLB start at Triple-A. 

It will likely be a sweaty play with a low total, but there are plenty of outs that can cash this Dodd Under 3.5 Ks at good plus money.

My best bet: Dodd Under 3.5 strikeouts (+125 at bet365)

Phillies vs Braves moneyline analysis

The Braves used their two best closers last night, and both Raisel Iglesias and Nick Anderson threw more than 20 pitches and might not be available tonight. That’s not great news for an Atlanta bullpen that currently sits 15th in reliever ERA and has 10 blown saves on the season, which is tied for the seventh-most in baseball. 

Compounding these issues will likely be a decent ask to its middle relievers, as Dodd hasn’t touched 90 pitches in any of his three MLB starts and is a 6.14 ERA Triple-A pitcher over the last two seasons. 

The Philadelphia offense has been a letdown to begin the year, ranking 20th in WAR and 12th in wOBA entering tonight. But this is still a lineup that's loaded with talent. Bryce Harper looks to be back to full health with a .915 OPS through 30 games. 

It’s a solid set-up for the Phillies’ offense, and with Aaron Nola getting deep into games of late coupled with his success vs. this lineup (3.67 ERA with a 1.074 WHIP over five games in 2022), the edge on the moneyline is with the visitors.

Philadelphia opened as a slight -115 road favorite, but has since moved to the pick 'em range. The best price for this Philly ML might be closer to game time, but a combination of Dodd and the Atlanta pen with two high-leverage arms possibly unavailable has me backing the Phillies.

Phillies vs Braves Over/Under analysis

Truist Park will be a hitter-friendly 80 degrees at first pitch with nine mph winds blowing across to right field. Ballpark Pal has it ranked as the third-best hitting park on today’s slate.

Early bettors were aware of the potential for runs today and bet the Over on the opening total of 9 and moved it to 9.5, which is where it sits across the board as of this writing.

It’s a high total, but Atlanta has been profitable to the Over on the season at 60.4% (29-19-1) but I believe the biggest part of this total handicap is the matchup between Nola and this Atlanta offense that ranks third in baseball in OPS and second in home runs hit.

Nola hasn’t been at a Cy Young level this season but has pitched well of late with a 3.48 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP over his last six starts — five of which he’s recorded more than 18 outs. Nola is also familiar with this lineup and has seen it six times since last year. That includes Game 3 of the NLDS, where he went six innings and allowed just one unearned run on five hits and six strikeouts.

It will be tough to hold this Atlanta offense to two or fewer runs, but if Nola can pitch into the seventh, allow the 2.93 earned runs THE BAT is projecting, and get decent relief with some rested high-leverage arms, a three-run effort from Atlanta is quite possible.

The move from 9 to 9.5 has me uninterested in this Over, and the combination of Dodd and the bullpen needing to eat innings pushes me off the Under 9.5.

Phillies vs Braves game info

Starting pitchers

Aaron Nola (4-3, 4.31 ERA): Nola is coming off a season-high 10 punchouts vs. the Cubs and continues to eat innings for the Phillies, going more than 18 outs in five of his last six outings. His numbers aren’t where they were last season, as the right-hander’s K/9 is down while his flyball rate is up. Batters are hitting .233 vs. Nola and THE BAT is projecting 92 pitches, 16.8 outs, 5.81 strikeouts, and 2.93 earned runs.

Dylan Dodd (2-1, 6.46 ERA): Dodd will be making his fourth start of the season and has similar numbers in Triple-A as he has with the big club. He likely won’t get deep, as he has gone 73, 84, and 85 pitches over his three starts but is coming off six shutout innings in his last turn vs. the Marlins on May 4. He has a 7/4 K/BB ratio over 15.1 innings of work with three home runs allowed this year. THE BAT is projecting 88 pitches, 15.8 outs, 4.31 strikeouts, and 3.02 earned runs.  

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The Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Braves

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