Pete Alonso Next Team Odds: Will the Polar Bear Don a New Uniform in 2024?

The New York Mets are 22-30, have gone 3-7 over their last 10, and trail the NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies by 15 games, and it's not even June.

With a run to the postseason more unlikely with every mounting loss, the Mets may be forced to set their sights on unloading some big names before the July 30 trade deadline. Perhaps the most prominent player who could find his way into a new uniform for the stretch run is slugging first baseman Pete Alonso. 

As rumors start swirling and desperation sets in, MLB odds still favor the Polar Bear to stick it out in Queens, but that can change on a dime.

Let's look deeper at Pete Alonso's next team odds as the MLB season inches closer to midsummer.

Pete Alonso next team odds

The market states "after the 2024 trade deadline" so it does not include next season or the upcoming offseason.

Team	Odds
New York Mets	-500
Tampa Bay Rays	+650
Seattle Mariners	+650
Chicago Cubs	+700
San Francisco Giants	+750
Milwaukee Brewers	+1,400

Odds as of 5-27

Favorites to be Pete Alonso's next team

New York Mets (-500)

The New York Mets drafted Pete Alonso in the second round of the 2016 draft. He was a fairly quick riser, breaking camp as a 24-year-old in 2019 and appearing in 161 games. He swatted a rookie-record 53 home runs (breaking Aaron Judge's mark of 52 from 2017), winning NL Rookie of the Year in near-unanimous fashion (Mike Soroka received one first-place vote).

Since debuting, Alonso has been a fixture in the Mets lineup. He's hit 40-plus home runs three times in five seasons (four if you want to omit the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign), was named to three All-Star teams, won two Home Run Derbies, has slashed .249/.339/.523 in 736 games, and never missed significant time due to injury.

Simply put, Alonso is the face of the Mets, even more than star shortstop Francisco Lindor.

He's a free agent after the season, so a flailing franchise could be motivated to move him. But that would also hurt the prospects of him signing a long-term deal to stay in Flushing. Even in a lost season, the Mets don't need to move him, especially if the return isn't overwhelming.

Tampa Bay Rays (+650)

This doesn't make sense. Any team acquiring Alonso would have to be in a position to make a serious run at October, and this iteration of the Tampa Bay Rays doesn't seem likely. Alonso is a rental, pure and simple. Even as a contender, the Rays don't typically swim in this pool, either. And with payroll constraints being what they historically have been and should continue to be, signing Alonso long-term seems very unlikely for Tampa. 

The roster fit makes sense, but nothing else does, especially with the Rays sitting in fourth place in a competitive AL East with a 26-28 record. I'd expect them to retool and plan for 2025 instead of making a desperate playoff push. It goes entirely against the team's ethos.

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Seattle Mariners (+650)

The Seattle Mariners make more sense than the Rays for a couple of reasons. One, the Ms are currently leading the AL West by three games, so they fit the bill as a would-be contender. Two, they've done it almost entirely on the back of the pitching staff. With 202 runs scored, only the Chicago White Sox have scored fewer runs among all AL teams. Adding Alonso to the middle of the lineup could give them the offensive jolt they need.

But who do they give up? Presumably, one of their starters would have to be included. I'd expect Luis Castillo and George Kirby to be off the table entirely and I'd be shocked if Logan Gilbert was moved. Could the Mariners be persuaded to trade either Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller, both of whom are under team control through the 2030 season? Maybe, but then who replaces them? It's one thing to deal from a position of strength, but the juice also has to be worth the squeeze. And if Alonso doesn't re-sign, that's a big price to pay for half a season.

Chicago Cubs (+700)

The Chicago Cubs are fighting for playoff positioning at 27-26 and could certainly benefit by acquiring Alonso. First baseman Michael Busch started strong but has completely eroded at the plate, batting just .188 in May. His 35.2% strikeout rate is the fourth highest among qualified hitters and he hasn't hit a home run since May 7. As far as internal options go, Matt Mervis might be a Quad-A player, as he's consistently knocked the cover off the ball at Triple-A but has never found a groove with the bat in the majors. 

The Cubs have some interesting prospects and have made deals with the Mets in the recent past (landing Pete Crow-Armstrong in the Javier Baez trade, for one). With Cody Bellinger re-signing over the offseason, could one of their outfield prospects like Crow-Armstrong, Kevin Alcantara, or Owen Caissie become expendable? The Cubs could theoretically afford an Alonso extension, so that could be worth it if they think they can keep him. But Bellinger has also spent significant time at first base, so maybe Alonso would represent an eventual redundancy.

San Francisco Giants (+750)

The San Francisco Giants are 8-2 in their last 10 games and have pulled back to .500 in the process. I like this landing spot best in terms of overall fit. Remember, the Giants haven't had a single 30-homer player since Barry Bonds in 2004. LaMonte Wade Jr. has performed admirably as the everyday first baseman this season, but a career-high .435 BABIP doesn't install me with great confidence that he will hit north of .330 much longer. And he's done it without any power to speak of, with just two homers in 51 games.

Alonso would be a fantastic addition to this team if they can find the right pieces to part with.

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