It’s another hot July day, so let’s find some MLB player props as hot as those temperatures.
My favorites today include a couple of fades. Padres’ starter Yu Darvish continues to knock off the rust as he faces the Mets, and Athletics outfielder Lawrence Butler has been in one hell of a slump since the All-Star break.
Those and more on Wednesday, July 30.
Best MLB player props today
Darvish o1.5 BBs (-120)
Stowers o0.5 RBI (+175)
Butler u0.5 hits (+160)
Our 3 best MLB player props for Wednesday, July 30
Take a look at our best bets and expert analysis below.
Yu Darvish Over 1.5 Walks (-120 at Caesars)
It has been a tough return to the mound for Yu Darvish. The veteran right-hander has missed most of the season with elbow inflammation, and he’s still knocking off the rust.
Darvish is pitching to an ugly 9.18 ERA after a tough outing against the St. Louis Cardinals, where he surrendered eight runs on eight hits in just 3 1/3 innings.
Command has been one of his chief problems, posting an 11.3% walk rate. That's almost double his career walk rate of 6.9% and I’m betting we see a few more free passes when he faces the New York Mets today.
The Mets have one of baseball's more patient lineups. They have seen the fifth-most pitches and rank sixth in walk rate vs. right-handed pitching.
Darvish has allowed two or more walks in three of his four starts since returning from the IL, and his walks allowed prop 1.5. My MLB picks will take the Over in what looks like another tough matchup for the San Diego Padres starter.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNY, SDPA
Kyle Stowers Over 0.5 RBIs (+175 at BetMGM)
It has been a breakout season for Miami Marlins outfielder Kyle Stowers, and he’s likely one of the few guys on this roster who is likely to stay put through Thursday’s trade deadline.
Stowers has not only broken out, but he looks like one of the best hitters in baseball, hitting .302 with 23 home runs and 63 RBI. The advanced numbers say it's no fluke, with Stowers ranking in the 89th percentile in expected batting average and the 97th in expected slugging.
He gets to face St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Miles Mikolas. The 36-year-old right-hander looks like little more than an innings eater at this point, ranking in the Bottom 20% among MLB starters in both expected ERA and opponent expected batting average. He’s been giving up a lot of hits lately, allowing 7+ in six of his last 10 starts.
Miami has been sneaky good vs. right-handed pitching this season, with the third-highest batting average in the big leagues. Plenty of baserunners should mean Stowers will have multiple opportunities to drive in a run tonight.
- Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FDSNFL, FDSNMW
Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 Hits (+160 at DraftKings)
Athletics outfielder Lawrence Butler has hit a bit of a slump, to put it nicely, and his chances of busting tonight against the Seattle Mariners aren’t great.
Butler is hitting just .116 with a .392 OPS in 12 games since the All-Star break. But the worst part has been the disgusting 41.3% strikeout rate during this stretch.
That doesn’t bode well vs. Mariners RHP Bryan Woo.
Woo has developed into one of the best young starters in the American League, boasting a 3.14 expected ERA while limiting opponents to a .231 expected batting average. He is also striking out a solid 24.3% of batters faced and has had Butler's number.
Butler is just 2-for-15 with five strikeouts vs. Woo, which works out to a.152 xBA and a .385 xSLG.
Butler has gone hitless in seven of his 12 games since the All-Star break. In this matchup, at this price, I can’t say no to him putting up another donut in the hit column tonight.
- Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: RSNW, NBC Sports California
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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