I’ll take a 2-1 SU card every day of the week. Baseball is an absolute grind, and staying consistent goes a long way over a season of high volume. It’s a getaway day for the majority of the league, with only three games on tomorrow's slate, so watch out for the mail-in sessions.
These are my three favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers on Wednesday, July 30.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for July 30
Freeland o17.5 outs (-106)
Springs u16.5 outs (-105)
Allard o3.5 hits allowed (+110)
Rockies vs. Guardians
The angle: Freeland is one of the most efficient pitchers in baseball and can get long on a low leash
The move: Kyle Freeland Over 17.5 outs (-106 at FanDuel)
It's not often that I’m backing a Colorado Rockies pitcher for 18 outs, but today's the day.
Kyle Freeland on the road is a different pitcher than he is at Coors. He owns a respectable 4.68 ERA away from home and has gone Over this number in seven of his 10 road starts and six of his last eight total.
Freeland is also one of the most efficient pitchers in baseball, averaging just 3.54 pitches per batter faced, which is the lowest mark in baseball.
The Cleveland Guardians offense has inflated its numbers in this series, facing some of the Rockies’ worst pitchers, while the 9-mph wind blowing in should help the lefty keep the ball in the park.
Mariners vs. Athletics
The angle: Sacramento is a tough place to pitch, and Springs can give up bombs
The move: Jeffrey Springs Under 16.5 outs (-105 at bet365)
The 16.5 total is always a number that can move either way. In today’s case with Jeffrey Springs, that’s to the Under.
Sacramento is a tough place to pitch and one of the better hitting parks in baseball, which is being aided by 9-mph winds blowing out. It’s a stronger Seattle Mariners offense that can match the left-handed Springs, who has given up 20 home runs in 120 innings this year. Only eight pitchers have allowed more.
His leash is also something that can help out the Unde, as he has gone 95+ pitches just twice over his last nine starts.
Rockies vs. Guardians
The angle: Allard is tough to price as his leash is in question, but should go four innings
The move: Kolby Allard Over 3.5 hits allowed (+110 at DraftKings)
Kolby Allard will get his second start of the year after spending the majority of the year as an elite bullpen arm.
In that one start, he tossed 62 pitches over four innings, which is a good gauge for today vs. the Rockies. He is the toughest pitcher to price because of the leash, as well as the Rockies team he has to face. He allowed four hits and two earned runs in that previous start while K'ing three batters.
His Overs project well, but I’ll take an Over 3.5 hits allowed at plus money, because when there is a wide range of variance, I tend to take plus-money odds.
THE BAT is projecting 4.73 hits allowed over 65 pitches, and both the Over hits and 1.5 earned runs project well.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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