Padres vs Yankees Predictions, Picks, Odds: Cole in Deep Trouble vs Friars?

There’s a grudge match in the Bronx as the San Diego Padres (24-28) and New York Yankees (31-23) meet for Game 3 to decide this interleague series. 

The Padres took Game 1 after a strong performance from starter Joe Musgrave. The Yankees then won a close one in Game 2 by a score of 3-2 in extra innings.

What does the third and final game of the series have in store? I break that all down and more in my MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs Yankees on Sunday, May 28. 

Padres vs Yankees odds

Padres vs Yankees predictions

For Sunday’s best bet, we’re going to target a MLB player prop concerning Gerrit Cole.

While Cole’s perfect record (5-0) and sterling ERA (2.53) look terrific at first glance, a closer inspection of his profile reveals some interesting nuggets. His xERA (3.93) is nearly a run and a half above his actual era, while his FIP (3.48) is nearly a full run higher.

Cole’s also generating fewer strikeouts, which is a noticeable change for someone who usually posts an obscene number of punchouts. His 25.3% K-rate is way down from his 32.4% K-rate a year ago, and is seven percentage points lower than it’s been in any season since 2017, his last with the Pirates. 

The underlying numbers seem to point toward this not being a fluke, and rather a new normal for the hard-throwing right-hander. His swinging strike rate in down to 11% this season — slightly below his 12.4% career average, but well below his typical numbers since leaving Pittsburgh. After joining the Astros in 2018, Cole has never posted a swinging strike rate below 14.1% or a strikeout rate below 32.4% — except for this season, where both numbers are not even close. 

The Padres have been near the middle of the pack in terms of striking out against right-handers, ranking 18th in K-rate (22.2%) across the last 10 days. They may be able to make Cole work here considering they have the second-highest BB-rate (13.0%) in that time span, whereas Cole’s 8.3% BB-rate is the highest number of his long career. 

Cole’s strikeout prop is set at 7.5 against the Padres. He’s gone under that number in four straight starts and is averaging 5.9 per start in his last 10 outings — more than one and a half less than his established prop. Give me the Under. 

My best bet: Cole Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-113)

Padres vs Yankees moneyline analysis

The Yankees are slightly favored in this game, with the best price currently available sitting at -140. The best comeback on the Padres at current is +130. 

The Padres haven’t exactly been on fire, going 5-11 across their last 16 games overall. They haven’t performed well when stepping up in competition, going just 2-8 in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record. 

Winning this series would be an important morale boost. They were in danger of dropping six straight series before pulling off a late win in Game 3 against the Washington Nationals previously. With this series tied up 1-1 and San Diego already dealing with the absence of Manny Machado, another loss could make it seem like things are spiraling even more than they already are. A win, on the other hand, would be a nice sign of progress. 

The Yankees have dominated this infrequently-played series, winning eight of the last 10 meetings in New York. They’ve generally been aces in interleague play, taking 16 of their last 21 games against the NL. 

It’s difficult to give either team a starting pitching advantage considering the underlying numbers look eerily similar for both Cole and Yu Darvish. Cole does have the better track record and has been great at Yankee Stadium in his career, with a 2.87 ERA across 44 starts. 

The bullpen advantage lies with the Yankees, but not by much (more on that later). There isn’t much of a lineup advantage for either side when looking at both full season and recent performance, as outlined below.

Padres vs Yankees Over/Under analysis

The Yankees rank 15th in wRC+ (99) and 20th in wOBA (.313) on the season. Narrowing that down to the last 10 days to evaluate recent performance, they check in at 20th in wRC+ (93) and 22nd in wOBA (.304).

The Padres, meanwhile, rank 21st in wRC+ (96) on the year and 22nd in wOBA (.309). Across the last 10 days, the check in at 17th in wRC+ (98) and 19th in wOBA (.311).

Looking at the weather forecast, there will be temperatures of 76–80 degrees with winds of 6-10 mph blowing out to left field. 

The Padres have been an Under machine in interleague play, going 0-7 O/U in their last seven games against the AL, and 2-4 O/U in their last 16 games against AL teams with a winning record. 

They’ve also cruised Under totals against right-handed pitching, notching a 7-22-1 O/U record in their last 30 games against a right-handed starting pitcher. Series finales have also been low-scoring for this ballclub, as they are 3-13 O/U in their last 16 during Game 3. 

Both bullpens have been superb. The Yankees lead the majors with a 2.99 ERA in relief, while the Padres aren’t far behind at 3.27. Once both starters leave the game, both managers have to feel good about their respective team’s chances of limiting damage. 

Padres vs Yankees game info

Starting pitchers

Yu Darvish (3-3, 3.67 ERA): Darvish is now in his third year in San Diego and his 11th year in the MLB. The 36-year-old has a 3.43 xERA and a 4.03 FIP. After posting a career-low 25.6% K-rate a year ago, he’s only slightly upped that number to 26%. The good news is that his barrel rate (7.1%) has normalized after spiking up to a career-high 9% a year ago.

Gerrit Cole (5-0, 2.53 ERA): Cole remains a dominant force. He hasn’t lost a game yet this year and has an elite 2.53 ERA. Interestingly enough, however, his 3.93 xERA and 3.48 FIP are both well above his actual ERA. His K-rate (25.3%) is the lowest it’s been in six years, while his BB-rate (8.3%) would be a new career high.

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Gerrit Cole has thrown for fewer than 7.5 strikeouts in four straight starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Yankees

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