The San Diego Padres look set to take the NL West division race right to the wire, but they’re surprise underdogs tonight in a matchup with the fading San Francisco Giants.
San Diego is coming off a pair of clutch weekend wins over the in-form Boston Red Sox, and my Padres vs. Giants predictions expect some carryover here against a San Francisco team that’s lost some of its mojo.
Find out why as I break down my MLB picks for Monday, August 11.
Padres vs Giants prediction
Padres vs Giants best bet: Padres moneyline (+110 Caesars)
It’s a huge week for the San Diego Padres, who start a three-game set against the San Francisco Giants tonight before a monster series with the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend. That makes it put-up or shut-up time for this star-studded San Diego lineup, and I’m buying the recent surge that’s propelled the Padres to an 11-3 record in their past 14 contests.
But it’s the Giants who enter as slight favorites here. That’s a puzzling line, with San Francisco just 29-28 at home this year – a mark that’s only marginally better than San Diego’s road record.
So it seemingly comes down to Logan Webb taking the ball for the hosts against Padres starter Yu Darvish and his 6.51 ERA. In contrast, Webb has posted a 3.24 ERA so far this year. On paper, that might look like a mismatch, but Webb’s ERA has ballooned to 6 across his past five outings, and I see the visitors edging the head-to-head battles.
While Darvish has a steady career record against the Giants’ top hitters, Webb has flopped against Luis Arraez, Manny Machado, and Co., and he can’t be assured of run support given that San Fran has cashed the F5 Innings Team Total Under in 34 of its past 54 home games.
With San Diego winning seven of the last 10 meetings between these teams, I’ll gladly take this price for the Padres moneyline.
Padres vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Plenty of pitchers have been found wanting against Luis Arraez, but Webb has a particularly ugly record in this matchup. Arraez has a 9-for-17 career mark against the San Francisco righty, including three RBIs, and I see him driving in another run tonight.
The Under is 65-50 for San Diego this year, and that’s dragged the total line down to 7 here. But the Padres aren’t exactly grinding out low-scoring victories these days; the Over was a winning ticket in all three games against the Red Sox at the weekend. Plus, the Giants have scored 4+ runs in seven of their last nine outings.
Padres vs Giants odds
Padres vs Giants live odds
Padres vs Giants opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +120 | San Francisco -133
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-190) | San Francisco -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Padres vs Giants trend
The Over is 6-2 in the last eight games of this San Diego hot streak. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Giants.
How to watch Padres vs Giants and game info
| Location | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Monday, August 11, 2025 |
| First pitch | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | PADRES.tv, NBCSBA |
| Padres starting pitcher | Yu Darvish (1-3, 6.51 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher | Logan Webb (10-8, 3.24 ERA) |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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