MLB Picks

Pfaadt has an ERA over six, and he has a 1-1 NRFI record so far. Walker is struggling, allowing seven earned runs across the last two outings in the first inning. We should see runs early. 

When it comes to his home run talent, Adrian Del Castillo ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Adrian Del Castillo is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today.. HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in MLB.. Hitting from the opposite that Taijuan Walker throws from, Adrian Del Castillo will have an advantage in today's game.. Adrian Del Castillo has big-time HR ability (75th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (29.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Taijuan Walker is a pitch-to-contact type (13th percentile K%) — great news for Del Castillo.

The Miami Marlins send Janson Junk to the mound today, and he’s looked solid so far. The righty has a 3.09 ERA and a perfect 2-0 NRFI record. Junk has come out and found a rhythm early. The Tigers start Casey Mize, who has a 1-1 NRFI record, and he's never faced Miami. 

PCA went deep 31 times last year. Although he’s only clubbed one homer so far this season, it’s only a matter of time until he gets going, and today’s matchup could be the perfect matchup for hm finding a rhythm. The Cubbies take on the rival Pittsburgh Pirates, who hand Braxton Ashcroft the baseball. Crow-Armstrong has swung it well against him, going 3-for-4 with a pair of doubles.

When estimating his home run skill, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brandon Lowe is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation generally leads to better offense.. Brandon Lowe will have the handedness advantage over Edward Cabrera today.. Brandon Lowe's launch angle this year (21.6°) is considerably better than his 15.8° mark last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daulton Varsho in the 2nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. In the majors, the 8th-highest fences are at Rogers Centre.. Extreme groundball batters like Daulton Varsho tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Joe Ryan.. Daulton Varsho has struggled with his Barrel%; his 16.4% rate last year has dropped off to 3.1% this season.. Daulton Varsho's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 89.5-mph EV last year has dropped to 82.9-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Bell in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Josh Bell is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 3rd-best stadium in baseball for RHB home runs.. In MLB, Rogers Centre's CF fences are the 10th-shallowest.. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this game 8° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Miguel Vargas is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Kauffman Stadium as the 7th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest altitude in the league, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. The weather report expects the 2nd-most suitable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Miguel Vargas is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Kauffman Stadium as the 7th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest altitude in the league, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. The weather report expects the 2nd-most suitable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jo Adell in the 95th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. Jo Adell is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. The #1 park in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. The 5th-shallowest left field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Great American Ball Park.. Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Williamson throws from, Jo Adell will have an edge in today's game.

Mike Trout projects as the 7th-best home run batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #1 park in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. The 5th-shallowest left field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Great American Ball Park.. Mike Trout will hold the platoon advantage against Brandon Williamson today.

The 28-year-old has three hits across his last two games, and more importantly, he’s had a bit of success against New York Mets starter Kodai Senga. In five at-bats, Langeliers has smacked one bomb. He's clubbed five homers this season. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lawrence Butler in the 80th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. Lawrence Butler has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (89% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.. Hitting from the opposite that Kodai Senga throws from, Lawrence Butler will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Lawrence Butler has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Lawrence Butler has been hot recently, putting up a 95.9-mph average exit velocity in the past week's worth of games.

Judge is up to three home runs so far. The Rays send Nick Martinez to the mound today, and Judge is 2-for-5 against him with a long ball. The slugger has two homers on the road, and one of his three bombs has been against right-handed hurlers. While Martinez has a solid 2.25 ERA through two outings, he’s already allowed two long balls.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trent Grisham in the 96th percentile when estimating his home run ability.. Trent Grisham is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest 8° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense.. Trent Grisham will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nick Martinez today.. Out of every team on the slate today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the the Tampa Bay Rays.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the best hitter in MLB when assessing his BABIP ability.. James Wood is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. American Family Field profiles as the #9 ballpark in the game for LHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in American Family Field.. Among all major league parks, American Family Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.

Joey Wiemer is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The #9 park in MLB for boosting home runs to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.. The 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in American Family Field.. Among all major league parks, American Family Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. The American Family Field roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest 8° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense.

I love the Under in this matchup. Webb is the better pitcher but he’s not been great. He’s been a tad unlucky given his 5.00 ERA exceeds his 3.50 xFIP, but he’s also rocking a .281 xBA.

The Giants rank near the bottom of the league in wOBAcon and hard-hit rate, and are dead last in barrel rate. The matchup with Bassitt raises their scoring floor.

Despite just 18 runs in the last six games, the Orioles rank fourth in BABIP and eighth in wRC+. 

This matchup of two sub-par starters will lead to a third straight Over for the Orioles.

 

Getting ground-ball outs becomes important when playing in Oriole Park. Logan Webb does that well, ranking in the 91st percentile a season ago and the 86th percentile in 2026. 

Chris Bassitt is struggling to get outs. 54% of his pitches to RHH this season have been fastballs, which is more of a local than an express. 

Command is also an issue, posting a 15% BB walk rate vs. a 7.5% K rate.

Bassitt’s getting destroyed by LHH, who are splitting .500/.583/.813 this season. With the short porch in RF, this sets up extremely well for the Giants to win.  

 

Ranger Suarez is not as bad as his early numbers suggest. The Cardinals once again struggle with production, so give me the Red Sox lineup to do plenty of damage against Kyle Leahy.

Ranger Suarez has averaged 94 adjusted pitches per outing since the start of last season, placing in the 86th percentile.. The St. Louis Cardinals have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Victor Scott II, Jordan Walker, Thomas Saggese, Pedro Pages).. Ranger Suarez's cutter percentage has increased by 11.6% from last year to this one (16.2% to 27.8%) .

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 9th-best park in Major League Baseball for right-handed base hits.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the league, which often leads to higher offensive output.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 82°.. Batting from the opposite that Martin Perez throws from, Rhys Hoskins will have an edge in today's game.. Rhys Hoskins has been hot recently, compiling a 95.2-mph average exit velocity in the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hunter Goodman in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Hunter Goodman is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. The 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences in MLB are found in Petco Park.. Petco Park has the 5th-shortest fences in MLB.. Hunter Goodman has strong power (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (29% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher German Marquez has a pitch-to-contact profile (18th percentile K%) — great news for Goodman.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hunter Goodman in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Hunter Goodman is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. The 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences in MLB are found in Petco Park.. Petco Park has the 5th-shortest fences in MLB.. Hunter Goodman has strong power (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (29% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher German Marquez has a pitch-to-contact profile (18th percentile K%) — great news for Goodman.

As it relates to his home run skill, Jake Burger ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jake Burger is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Dodger Stadium as the 2nd-best venue in MLB for right-handed home runs.. Dodger Stadium has the 9th-shallowest CF fences in the majors.. Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height among all major league stadiums.

Brandon Nimmo will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game.. Over the past week, Brandon Nimmo has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (a reliable metric to study power).

To say the Seattle Mariners' offense got stuck in the starting gate would be putting it lightly. They are 30th in batting average, OBP, SLG, and OPS. The only reason they are not winless is that their pitching has been solid.

Yordan Alvarez projects as the 4th-best batter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yordan Alvarez is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest average fence height in the majors.. Homers are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in the league.. Yordan Alvarez will hold the platoon advantage against Luis Castillo in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Castillo has a large platoon split.