Padres vs Dodgers Picks and Predictions: Los Angeles Extends First Place Lead in Division

With a 2.5-game lead in the NL West, the Los Angeles Dodgers look to get another home win tonight against San Diego, following a 3-1 victory in the series opener. Find out why we're backing LA and the Under in our Padres vs. Dodgers betting picks.

Last Updated: Jul 1, 2022 6:02 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Justin Turner Los Angeles Dodgers MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Los Angeles Dodgers will look to expand their lead in the NL West over the San Diego Padres when the two division rivals meet at Dodger Stadium on Friday night.

L.A. fired the opening salvo of the series on Thursday with a closely-fought 3-1 victory. Can San Diego bounce back against Tony Gonsolin and company or will the Dodgers prevail once more? 

Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs Dodgers on Friday, July 1.

Padres vs Dodgers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Dodgers opened as heavy -170 favorites and have stayed in that range, drifting up only a few cents at most sites. The total was unveiled at 7.5 and has seen little movement throughout the day.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Padres vs Dodgers predictions

Picks made on 7/01/2022 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Padres vs Dodgers game info

Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Date: Friday, July 1, 2022
First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports San Diego, SportsNet LA

Padres vs Dodgers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Blake Snell (0-5, 5.60 ERA): Snell has struggled mightily this season and is still in search of his first victory on the mound after seven starts. The former Cy Young winner has had his fair share of control issues, surrendering 19 bases on balls through only 35 1-3 innings.

Tony Gonsolin (9-0, 1.58 ERA): Gonsolin has gone from an afterthought to an ace in the Dodgers’ rotation this year. He’s fresh off a 4-0 month of June in which he pitched to a scant 1.24 ERA over 29 innings (five starts).

Weather

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Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Padres are 14-38 in their last 52 meetings with the Dodgers in Los Angeles. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs Dodgers. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers

Padres vs Dodgers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Dodgers should secure their 10th win in an 11-start span for Tony Gonsolin when they host the Padres on Friday night. San Diego enters this matchup ranked 10th in the majors in runs per game at 4.60, but they’ve plated just three runs per contest during their current 2-5 slide.

The Friars have yet to face Gonsolin this year, and they’re up against it if he can keep things rolling into July. Gonsolin owns a minuscule 0.81 ERA and .118 opponent batting average over six starts (33 1-3 innings) at home in 2022.

Then there’s the problem that Blake Snell currently presents for the Padres on the mound. It remains to be seen if he can recapture his Cy Young-winning form from a few seasons ago. As it now stands, the left-hander is a liability for manager Bob Melvin based on his 6.20 ERA in June.

Justin Turner has three hits in eight prior at-bats against Snell and is fresh off his fourth multi-hit game since June 21, so look for him to lead the way on offense for the Dodgers. Will Smith is also 4-for-10 lifetime against Snell and saw the ball well in June, batting .295 with seven homers and 14 RBI, so he’s another candidate to deal damage at the dish tonight.

The trends favor Los Angeles too, as the Dodgers are 49-17 in their last 66 home games and 36-15 in their last 51 home games against left-handed starters. Meanwhile, the Padres have dropped five of their last six road games.

Prediction: Dodgers moneyline (-175 at BetRivers)

Over/Under analysis

Under bettors are receiving enough leeway, considering this game is at Dodger Stadium to go ahead and take the plunge. Getting Manny Machado back off a brief injury should give the San Diego offense a shot in the arm, but bettors can’t be quite sure who’s going to help him pile up the hits.

Eric Hosmer is fresh off a dismal month of June in which he hit just .202. Jurickson Profar is also batting just .190 over the last seven days, and Luke Voit hasn’t hit a home run since June 19, going 4-for-28 at the dish (.143).

Once Gonsolin departs, an excellent Dodger bullpen that’s third in the majors by ERA over the last two weeks will take over. Set-up man Daniel Hudson may have gone down for the season with an injury, but the unheralded Evan Phillips — who pitched 11 scoreless innings last month — is among the relievers who have stepped up for this unit.

San Diego’s relief corps is nothing to sneeze at either, ranking third in ERA for the month of June at 3.03. Nabil Crismatt did the bulk of the work for the Friars in that stretch, pitching 13 2-3 frames, authoring only one inning that wasn’t of the shutout variety.

Trend bettors should note that the Under is 8-2 in the Padres’ last 10 games against right-handed starters, and 7-1-2 in the Dodgers’ last 10 divisional games.

Prediction: Under 7.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Best bet

The road to the Under cashing in this game should begin with a scoreless first frame. Snell’s struggles have come primarily in the latter stages of his starts this season, as opponents are batting just .161 against him the first time through the order.

The Dodgers do a lot of things well, but one area where they occasionally falter is hitting left-handed pitching, as they’re 17th in baseball in average against southpaws (.245). Opponents are hitting just .172 against Gonsolin the first time through the lineup with 31 strikeouts over 116 at-bats.

Part of that can be chalked up to his incredible success against leadoff hitters this year, as Gonsolin has allowed a paltry .029 batting average to top-of-the-order men in 2022.

Pick: No Runs First Inning (-117 at Unibet)

MLB parlays

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