The San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks face off in MLB action tonight for the second outing of a three-game set.
My Padres vs. Diamondbacks predictions are targeting San Diego as a slight moneyline underdog in a spot where Arizona is floundering for offense. Read more in my MLB picks below.
Padres vs Diamondbacks prediction
My best bet
Padres moneyline (+108 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Arizona Diamondbacks are slim -125 home faves in this NL West showdown which is likely due to a perceived edge on the mound. They are starting sophomore right-hander Brandon Pfaadt while the San Diego Padres are giving the ball to righty Michael King.
Pfaadt has a 4.63 ERA through six starts, but his expected ERA is an impressive 3.10, and he's been sharp in his last three outings. King was extremely productive as a reliever for the Yankees but hasn't looked like a viable starter with San Diego. He has a 5.00 ERA through 36 innings this season and has surrendered four or more earned runs in three of his last four starts.
While the Diamondbacks have a small edge when it comes to starting pitching, San Diego's lineup is far more dangerous, and the analytics back that up. San Diego is second in the majors in xBA (.267) and has an xSLG of .422, while Arizona has a .249 xBA and a .389 xSLG.
The Padres are also third in the majors in OPS against right handers (.753) while the Diamondbacks sit just 28th (.629). When you also consider the D-Backs are 2-6 in their last eight and plated 1.88 runs per game during that span, I don't trust them as a fave here.
Padres vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Padres moneyline
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Brandon Pfaadt Under 1.5 walks
Fernando Tatis Jr. was one of the top hitters in the majors in 2021 when he slashed .282/.364/.611. While he has a modest .455 slugging percentage this season, his xSLG is an impressive .549, and his 54.8% hard-hit rate suggests positive regression is on the horizon. Tatis went 3-for-5 at the dish last night and now boasts an incredible .741 slugging percentage in 21 games at Chase Field.
Pfaadt is coming off a performance where he fanned a career-high 11 batters without allowing a single walk. His control has been impressive and he's currently in the Top 10th percentile in walk rate. Pfaadt has fewer than 1.5 walks in 11 of his previous 16 starts going back to last year.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Diamondbacks odds
Padres vs Diamondbacks live odds
Padres vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-190) | Arizona -1.5 (+160)
- Moneyline: San Diego +110 | Arizona -130
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110)
Padres vs Diamondbacks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The ML has slimmed from -130 to -125 for the Diamondbacks while the total has ticked down from 9.0 to 8.5.
- The Padres are on a three-game winning streak but had lost five in a row before that and have also lost in King's last three starts.
- The Diamondbacks are 1-4 in Pfaadt's previous five starts.
- Ten days ago, Arizona was second in the majors in scoring, but analytics indicated that regression was on the way, and it's averaged just 1.88 runs/game since.
Padres vs Diamondbacks trend
The Diamondbacks are 10-17 in their last 27 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Diamondbacks
Padres vs Diamondbacks game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Saturday, 5-4-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally San Diego, Bally Arizona |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Michael King (2-3, 5.00 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Brandon Pfaadt (1-1, 4.63 ERA) |
Padres vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Padres vs Diamondbacks weather
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