Padres vs Cardinals Picks and Predictions: Sleepy San Diego Stumbles in St. Louis

It's a Memorial Day affair in St Louis when the Cardinals and Padres link up on Monday afternoon. This will mark the beginning of a three-game series for the two teams.

The Cardinals come into this one off an essential divisional series against the Brewers. There they were able to take two of three from Milwaukee to close the gap in the NL Central to 3.5 games. On the season, St. Louis is 26-21 and has treaded water over the last ten games with a record of 6-4.

For my money, one of the most underrated storylines of the MLB season so far is how well the Padres have started even without Fernado Tatis Jr. in the lineup. The star SS had wrist surgery on March 16th and is slated for a mid-June return. Even without him, the Padres are 30-17.

Our MLB betting picks and predictions dig in to see who has the advantage in this afternoon's clash.

Padres vs Cardinals odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The odds for this meeting were released last night with the Cardinals as slight -120 favorites, but this quickly moved to a 50/50 game after San Diego saw some money. Most oddsmakers have the juice split between the teams with -110 going both ways at the majority of books.

We've also seen some movement on the total. It opened at 8.5 and quickly went to a flat nine, where it has since stayed by this writing.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Padres vs Cardinals predictions

• Prediction: Cardinals ML (-110)
• Prediction: Padres TT Under 4 (-108)
• Best bet: Martinez Under 4.5 Ks (-145)

Picks made on 5/30/2022 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Padres vs Cardinals game info

• Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
• Date: Monday, May 30, 2022
• First pitch: 2:15 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports San Diego, Bally Sports Midwest

Padres vs Cardinals betting preview

Starting pitchers

Nick Martinez (2-2, 3.86 ERA): It's been an average month for Martinez, who's seen 20 innings of work and gave up earned runs in around half of those frames. That's pretty much who he is. He relies on batters chasing his breaking balls, and when teams don't do that and make consistent contact, he suffers. His last start came against the Brewers, where he gave up two earned runs over five innings of work.

Packy Naughton (0-1, 2.89 ERA): Naughton has seen a sharp improvement from his rookie season, where he had an ERA of 6.35. Naughton is coming off of back-to-back appearances without surrendering a run. Those were both out of the bullpen, which brings us to the big question: how will Naughton fare as a starter? This is just his second start of the season. He was hit hard in his first start against the Orioles, giving up three runs in just over three innings. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Padres: Will Myers LF (Out), Matt Beaty RF (Out), Fernado Tatis Jr SS (Out), Mike Clevinger SP (Out).
Cardinals: Harrison Bader CF (Questionable), Tyler O'Neill RF (Out), Jack Flaherty SP (Out), Jordan Hicks P (Out).

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 5-0-1 in the Padres' last six games. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Cardinals

Padres vs Cardinals picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Padres will welcome Manny Machado back to the lineup today, and there is still no word on if Harrison Bader will play for the Cardinals. I think that's partly why San Diego saw some money come its way when these lines opened. Despite that, I'm still rolling with the Cardinals today and think the -110 is pretty kind.

Cardinals starter Packy Naughton is a bit of a wild card here, and he probably won't feature regularly in the rotation once — if — the Cardinals staff gets healthy. But I think the unknown has given us some value here because I like his solid start chances. Fly balls got him in trouble against Baltimore in his first start, but that likely won't be repeated here. Those two teams couldn't do much differently from a hitting perspective as the O's hit many fly balls and not as many ground balls.

Meanwhile, the Padres are last in flyball rate in baseball and fifth in groundball rate and St. Louis has an elite defensive infield. I'm not sure how deep Naughton goes, but I like him to have a strong start. After that, he'll be backed by a reliable bullpen that is currently sixth in the MLB in WHIP.

I like the matchup the Cardinals' hitters have at the plate here, and that's the fundamental basis of this handicap, given that we have limited info on Naughton. As previously stated, Martinez's real success is built on batters chasing and missing. His best start of the year came against the Marlins. He went seven innings, giving up just one earned run. Care to guess who has the highest chase rate in baseball? You're right; it's those same Marlins.

Martinez won't get that against the Cardinals. They don't swing at pitches outside the zone much, and even when they do, they make a fair deal of contact at around 57%, which is suitable for the seventh-best rate in baseball. I like them to do enough here in what projects to be a low-scoring game.

This has the makings of a 50/50 game, but I'm rolling with the Cardinals because I think they have a considerably better pitching matchup.

Prediction: Cardinals moneyline (-110 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

This isn't an easy travel day for the Padres.

They played yesterday in a game that ended around 6 p.m. local time and flew across the country to play the Cardinals in an early afternoon start. This prompted me to look into how the Padres fare in these positions, and I found something interesting.

The Padres have played four day games where they traveled cross-country on no rest dating back to last season. They have failed to score over two runs in any of those games. Who am I to deny a good trend?

This does come with a bit of a risk because we have some unknowns at the mound, but hey, I've already talked about how I like this matchup for Naughton. However, even if he doesn't go deep into this game, he'll be backed up by a bullpen that has been strong and is rested for today after not using any of their high-leverage relievers in Sunday's finale against Milwaukee.

The Padres have gone Under this total for six straight games now. Machado being back in the lineup has probably contributed to the Over being juiced, but I'll take my chances. The trends like this side and so do my projections. That's the best edge in the game and one I can't pass up.

Prediction: Padres team total Under 4 (-108 at FanDuel)

Best bet

My favorite bet today is the Under on Nick Martinez strikeouts, and I still see value in the number despite it being juiced.

As previously stated, Martinez won't get the chases he thrives on from this disciplined Cardinals lineup. They can frustrate him a fair amount and maybe even get him out of the game quickly before he has a chance to cash. He has gone Over this number a few times this season, but they've all come against teams that swing a lot. No team in baseball strikes out less frequently than St. Louis.

Back the Cardinals' patience at the plate to get this one in green.

Pick: Nick Martinez Under 4.5 strikeouts (-145 at FanDuel)

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