Friday night action is packed, and the dog-friendly board is screaming value—starting with a sharp play on the Royals at a sweet price tag.
Check out our expert MLB moneyline predictions and MLB picks for Friday, Aug. 14.
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MLB moneyline picks for Aug. 14
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Cardinalsvs  Cubs |
+167 |
 Marlinsvs  Reds |
+106 |
 Red Sox vs  Pirates |
+117 |
 White Soxvs  Tigers |
+138 |
 Oriolesvs  Rays |
+150 |
 Nationalsvs  Mets |
+106 |
 Padres vs  Guardians |
-122 |
 Yankeesvs  Blue Jays |
-141 |
 Diamondbacksvs  Braves |
+182 |
 Marinersvs  Astros |
+113 |
 Royalsvs  Angels |
-104 |
 Rangersvs  Athletics |
+102 |
 Brewersvs  Dodgers |
+170 |
 Rockiesvs  Giants |
+120 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of Aug. 14.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for Aug. 14
Cardinals vs Cubs: Cardinals (+167)
Cardinals win probability: 38%
This is simply a fade on Clay Holmes, who owns a 6.43 ERA, 4.41 xERA and 1.71 WHIP while allowing a 50% hard-hit rate to opposing hitters over his last three starts. Cardinals left-hander Matthew Liberatore has some strong underlying metrics that point toward improvement, which I feel safe leaning on here.
St. Louis' offense has also been pretty decent over its last 12 games, posting a 105 wRC+, .321 wOBA and nearly a 10% walk rate. Chicago has been scorching hot, but if Liberatore can keep the Cubs' offense in check, the Cardinals should be just fine.
Marlins vs Reds: Marlins (+106)
Marlins win probability: 48%
The Marlins as an underdog here feels like a steal!
For starters, their offense has been humming, led by Griffin Conine, who has been barreling the hell out of the ball over his last 10 games. Overall, as a team over their last six games, they own a 122 wRC+, .344 wOBA and .772 OPS. The Reds, during that stretch, have just a 56 wRC+, .255 wOBA and .567 OPS.
Chase Burns has been very impressive this season, but Sandy Alcantara has been just as good. Over his last five starts, the former Cy Young winner has a 1.64 ERA, 2.96 xERA and 0.97 WHIP.
Trust the fish!
Red Sox vs Pirates: Pirates (+117)
Pirates win probability: 46%
Let's take a stab at the Pirates at home as a slight underdog against the cooling-off Red Sox.
Red Sox left-hander Jake Bennett has struggled a tad over his last few outings, but he has some strong expected numbers pointing toward progression. However, as mentioned, the Red Sox offense has gone cold over the last week, posting a 91 wRC+, .675 OPS and .106 ISO over their last six games.
Taking the plus money on the Pirates feels right with the Red Sox coming back to reality.
White Sox vs Tigers: White Sox (+138)
White Sox win probability: 42%
Massive series for both AL Central teams, but this feels bigger for the Chicago White Sox, who have struggled on the road this season. They draw Jackson Jobe, who looks great coming back from injury, while Sean Newcomb takes the mound for Chicago in his second start of the season.
The White Sox luck into taking on the Tigers when their offense has been cold over the last week, posting an 85 wRC+, .287 wOBA and .625 OPS. Meanwhile, the White Sox have a 126 wRC+, .351 wOBA and .794 OPS during that stretch.
At +138, it will be a fun sweat!
Orioles vs Rays: Orioles (+150)
Orioles win probability: 40%
Rays right-hander Jesse Scholtens takes the mound this evening with a 5.54 xERA and 1.44 WHIP while allowing nearly a 20% barrel rate to opposing hitters over his last five outings. The Orioles have started to heat up over their last six games, sporting a .795 OPS and .209 ISO while generating a 47% hard-hit rate and 10.5% barrel rate.
The Rays' offense has been solid for more than a month now, but in terms of price, the Orioles offer a ton at +150.
Nationals vs Mets: Nationals (+106)
Nationals win probability: 48%
I'm not sure how much we can hold Mets starter Robert Stock to his current 10.13 ERA through just eight innings, but the Nationals as an underdog here feel like the side to be on. Even without James Wood, the Nationals' offense has maintained a 134 wRC+, .362 wOBA and .828 OPS over the last week.
The Mets have been very consistent over their last 21 games, but Andrew Alvarez has been very sustainable on the road, posting a 3.10 ERA while limiting hard contact and barrels.
Padres vs Guardians: Guardians (-122)
Guardians win probability: 55%
With how well Guardians right-hander Gavin Williams has been pitching over his last five outings, fading him sounds terrifying. The $1.22 price tag is concerning, but Williams and the Guardians' bullpen should be able to hold down the Padres' bats.
Michael King has looked great over his last five outings, but his 4.19 xERA against left-handed hitters is concerning, especially with the Guardians only having one true right-handed hitter in their lineup.
Yankees vs Blue Jays: Yankees (-141)
Yankees win probability: 58%
It is very hard to trust the Blue Jays even after coming off a pretty solid week against the Red Sox, but they still have a 74 wRC+, .277 wOBA and .619 OPS across their last 12 games. Plus, with Shane Bieber on the mound this evening, owning a 5.48 ERA, 6.26 xERA and 1.66 WHIP on the year, the Yankees have to be the play.
Diamondbacks vs Braves: Diamondbacks (+182)
Diamondbacks win probability: 36%
Are we not aware of how well Brandon Pfaadt has been pitching over his last five starts? The Diamondbacks right-hander has a 1.13 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over that span. All while the offense has been on fire, as Arizona has a 122 wRC+, .349 wOBA and .793 OPS over its last 21 games.
The Braves, on the other hand, do send out Chris Sale, but their offense is the concern, posting just a 94 wRC+, .304 wOBA and .691 OPS over that same stretch.
Price-wise, the Diamondbacks are the move.
Mariners vs Astros: Mariners (+113)
Mariners win probability: 47%
Short and sweet, both offenses have been abysmal. Why pay juice for a team that has a .127 ISO, 61 wRC+ and a 36% hard-hit rate over its last six games? Take the plus money!
Royals vs Angels: Royals (-104)
Royals win probability: 51%
Angels right-hander Grayson Rodriguez has been pretty decent over his last three starts, owning a sub-4.00 ERA, but his expected numbers are still brutal. On the other side, Seth Lugo has maintained a 3.88 xERA over his last five starts.
Neither team's offense has been great over the past week, but the Royals do not strike out nearly as often as the Angels, plus they draw more walks. Take the Royals.
Rangers vs Athletics: Athletics (+102)
Athletics win probability: 50%
Fade Kumar Rocker day!
The Rangers right-hander enters Friday with a 6.08 ERA over his last five starts, along with a Rangers offense that has regressed as the days go by. Over their last 21 games, Texas has an 83 wRC+, 75 over its last 12 and 63 over its last six, along with a .259 wOBA and .076 ISO.
The Athletics have been slightly better, and Gage Jump has been pretty serviceable for them. Take the home dog.
Brewers vs Dodgers: Brewers (+170)
Brewers win probability: 37%
Do not force yourself to back the Dodgers and pay the Yoshinobu Yamamoto tax.
Sure, the Brewers have not been too hot as of late, but neither have the Dodgers' bats. Over their last 12 games, they have a .145 ISO and .691 OPS.
Getting one of the more well-rounded teams in baseball at +170 is worth dabbling on.
Rockies vs Giants: Rockies (+120)
Rockies win probability: 46%
It is shocking to see the Rockies as underdogs in San Francisco when they have been playing some great ball as of late. Over their last 12 games, they have posted a .787 OPS, .190 ISO and .342 wOBA. On top of that, veteran left-hander Kyle Freeland has a 3.27 xERA over his last five starts. Meanwhile, Giants right-hander Landen Roupp has a 6.59 ERA, 4.40 xERA and 1.76 WHIP over his last three.
San Francisco's offense has been pretty lifeless as of late, and I would not advise trusting them.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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