The New York Yankees took Game 1 of the Subway Series in impressive fashion, beating their inner-city counterparts by a 6-2 scoreline.
It was a relatively quiet game for the New York Mets’ big boys as Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, and Pete Alonso combined for just one hit.
My Mets vs. Yankees predictions see the road team’s star power shining brighter in Game 2, with Lindor and a certain former Yankees superstar taking center stage.
Let’s take a closer look with my May 17 MLB picks.
Mets vs Yankees prediction
My Mets vs Yankees best bet: Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 hits, runs, RBIs (-140 at Bet365)
Francisco Lindor is a monster against right-handers. He’s sporting a .302 average, .377 on base percentage, 81% contact rate, and 50.4% hard hit percentage vs. righties on the season. All of those numbers are above league average and, in most cases, drastically so.
He also profiles very well against Clarke Schmidt’s pitch mix. When isolating Lindor’s numbers against curveballs, cutters, and sweepers, which account for approximately 90% of Schmidt’s pitches, Lindor is hitting .354 with a .424 xwOBA. Incredible numbers.
Schmidt has been very tough on right-handed batters this season, allowing a .129 batting average and .464 OPS. He’s had a much harder time slowing down left-handed hitters, giving up a .244 average and .952 OPS to date. Lindor is a switch hitter who will hit left-handed against Schmidt, setting up the splits in his favor.
They haven’t seen much of one another but the early returns are encouraging for Lindor. He has drawn a pair of walks while also hitting a homer in one of the four at bats.
He always seems to get up for games against the Yankees as well, recording nine hits over his last five games against them.
Look for Lindor to make noise offensively again in this one.
Mets vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 hits, runs, RBIs
Juan Soto Over 1.5 hits, runs, RBIs
Clarke Schmidt Under 5.5 strikeouts
Almost every reason Lindor stands out in this matchup applies to Juan Soto as well. He’s a left-handed batter who the splits favor against Schmidt.
Soto’s numbers against Schmidt’s pitch mix are even better. He’s hitting .303 but with a .353 expected average, .505 xwOBA, and 64.7% hard hit rate. Soto has also cleared 1.5 H+R+R in 61% of his games this season and 65% of his road dates. After a somewhat quiet performance in his return to Yankee Stadium, the stars are aligning for a louder performance in Game 2.
Lastly, we’re fading Schmidt with strikeouts. The New York Mets rank Top-10 in on base percentage and 5th in barrel rate against right-handed pitchers in May. They’re consistently working counts and making loud contact when they get pitches to hit.
Perhaps even more importantly, they make opposing pitchers work very hard. They have the lowest swinging strike percentage in the majors this month and rank Bottom-5 in swing percentage.
They don’t chase bad pitches and are happy to let the pitch count soar if they don’t get the pitches they want.
There’s also some nice correlation between the three bets. If Lindor and Soto make noise at the plate, the Mets as a whole probably did plenty of damage and it’ll be tough for Schmidt to pile up the punchouts under those circumstances.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Yankees odds
Mets vs Yankees live odds
Mets vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: New York (NL) +115 | New York (AL) -135
- Run line: New York (NL) +1.5 (-180) | New York (AL) -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-110) | Under 9.5 (-110)
Mets vs Yankees trend
Francisco Lindor has cleared 1.5 H+R+R in five straight against New York, averaging four per game. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Yankees.
How to watch Mets vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York |
| Date | Saturday, 5-17-2025 |
| First pitch | 1:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network, SNY, YES |
| Mets starting pitcher | Griffin Canning (5-1, 2.36 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Clarke Schmidt (1-1, 4.37 ERA) |
Mets vs Yankees latest injuries
Mets vs Yankees weather
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