Mets vs Yankees Picks and Predictions: Another Win for The Bronx Bombers

It's Game 2 of the Subway Series tonight in the Bronx when the New York Yankees host the New York Mets.

I swept my two plays yesterday as Domingo German delivered a strong start on the mound going six innings and surrendering two runs. It propelled the Yanks to a 4-2 victory and gave them back-to-back wins for the first time in August. the Bronx Bombers now have an eight-game lead over the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East.

Who will take Game 2? Find out in our MLB betting picks and predictions for the Mets vs. Yankees on Tuesday, August 23, 2022.

Mets vs Yankees odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

As expected after a late pitching change, the Yankees opened up as a solid -130 favorite. Since then, the odds have stayed the same, and the Mets are returning at a price of around +115.

The total opened at 8.5 and has also stayed the same.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Mets vs Yankees predictions

• Prediction: Yankees ML (-130)
• Prediction: Over 8.5 (-120)
• Best bet: Run scored in first inning (-115)

Picks made on 8/23/2022 at 2:05 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Mets vs Yankees game info

• Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
• Date: Tuesday, August 23, 2022
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• TV: TBS

Mets vs Yankees betting preview

Starting pitchers

Taijuan Walker (10-3, 3.37 ERA): Walker's success remains one of the season's biggest mysteries for me. He has an xERA over four and has some peripherals that don't paint a pretty picture. Among them is a hard-hit rate that ranks in the Bottom 20% of all qualified pitchers. What remains the key to Walker's success is his splitter. So many pitchers don't throw it well, so many batters don't see it often, and thus many don't hit well. It makes up 27% of his pitches and has produced a -11 run value this season.

Frankie Montas (4-10, 3.87 ERA): It's safe to say that Montas hasn't been what the Yankees thought he'd be in pinstripes. Two of his three worst starts of the season have come in two of his three starts wearing a Yankees' uniform. It's a bit difficult to figure out why. Montas may not be due to be an elite pitcher, but he's certainly not one that should be getting shelled regularly like that. Since the move, teams have targeted his below-average barrel rate.

Weather

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Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Yankees

Mets vs Yankees picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The situation is evident here. We have a pitcher that continues to pitch at an unstainable level and one that has to improve at some point. For instance, Frankie Montas has given up six or more earned runs in six starts in the past two seasons. Two of those have come in three of his starts wearing a Yankees' uniform.

On the flip side, Taijuan Walker has pitched better than his xERA for multiple seasons in a row now. However, this is the most significant difference between the two, so I'm rolling with the Yanks here tonight.

I have mixed feelings about the New York Mets this season. You don't win the number of games they've won without being a good baseball team. However, you can't ignore some of the hitting luck they've gotten and some of the pitchers who outpitched their coverage significantly.

As highlighted above, Walker is one of those pitchers. Tonight he faces a team that dinged him for three earned runs in six innings the last time they met him. It was mid-level performance but one you'd expect to improve upon the second time. Mainly when playing in the Bronx in a more hitter-friendly park, given his hard-hit issues. 

I'm not expecting Montas to be dominant, but I'm hoping for some improvements. I've spent time speaking about this throughout the season, but the Mets aren't the worst team to play when you have a hard-hit issue. They don't have many players who hit the ball very hard in their lineup. As far as it relates to their success against the fastball, the numbers are acceptable, but they aren't exactly great.

This play doesn't have much to do with Montas and is more about expecting regression from Walker against a team that I believe has rediscovered its form. 

Prediction: Yankees moneyline (-130 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

I'm relying heavily on my projections, which seem to give us a significant edge vs. the number. As a result, we're taking the Over with two suspect options on the mound.

Even though I've stated that I expect Montas to improve, you still have to expect him to give up some runs. For whatever reason, he hasn't looked comfortable since he got to the Big Apple. That, as much as anything, makes it exceedingly difficult to expect some shutdown performance from him when the lights will be the brightest.

We won't need the Mets to get a ton of runs — three or four should do the trick — and that's a pretty reasonable expectation given what's in front of us. 

On the other side, I think I've explained enough why I'm not high on Walker. To put it even more, though, I'm confused about how he managed to keep his ERA below four. For this matchup, it's worth mentioning that this Bronx lineup has had some success against his money pitch: The splitter. Today's lineup will feature four players batting over .300 on the season against it, including the red-hot Andrew Benintendi.

Our projections give us an edge of 8% here vs. this current number available. I will take that and run with it. Winds blowing out and temperatures in the mid 80s only strengthen our handicap here. 

Prediction: Over 8.5 (-120 at BetMGM)

Best bet

In my previous Covers articles, I have played the first-inning bet once as my best bet, so it's a rare occurrence. But tonight will be that rare occurrence as I'm rolling with a run scored in the first inning as my best bet — a look at the numbers.

The Yankees are third in baseball over the past three games in runs scored in the first inning. Additionally, they achieve more in the first inning in Yankee Stadium than they do on the road. The nature of this rivalry and the Yanks' potential resurgence make them a solid bet to score early. 

While the Mets haven't been exactly lighting up the scoreboard early in the first inning as of late, they do rank sixth overall in baseball in first-inning scores on the season. I expect Montas to be solid tonight, but he's still not a bad pitcher on the mound when playing a YRIF. His rough starts for the Yankees are heavily noted, and we shouldn't ignore the potential for him to fold in a pressure-packed start.

I've recently started a first-run inning model and have had some success. It sees this being priced around -130, and the handicap surrounding it follows that line of thinking. So I will break from the norm and ride with it as my best bet. 

Pick: Run scored in the first inning (-115 at DraftKings)

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