The Chicago White Sox will look to extend their lead in the AL Central as they host the New York Mets on Saturday night.
Luis Castillo has been inconsistent since joining Chicago, and I'm backing New York to take advantage and win in my Mets vs. White Sox predictions.
Read more to see all my MLB picks for Saturday, Aug. 22.
Who will win Mets vs White Sox today: New York Mets (+100)
Luis Castillo (4-9, 4.99 ERA) has seen his numbers take a sharp decline this year, and the underlying data might look even worse.
The Chicago White Sox starter is allowing a barrel rate of 9.9%, is allowing an average exit velocity of 90.0 mph, and is only striking out batters 20.1% of the time.
The New York Mets have a lineup that can take advantage of this, as they rank third in MLB in hard-hit percentage (41.2%).
I expect New York to get to Castillo early and often tonight. I'm taking the Mets to win at -110 or better.
COVERS INTEL: The Mets have an air pull rate of 19.7% against fastballs and sliders off righties, two pitches that make up 69% of Castillo's arsenal.
Mets vs White Sox Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+108)
Castillo is the weaker pitcher in this matchup, but I expect the White Sox to find success against Christian Scott (4-3, 3.51 ERA) as well.
Chicago is putting up an impressive 4.77 runs per game and has one of the lowest chase rates in the league at 28.9%.
That will be important against Scott, who is walking 9.5% of batters he faces (good for 3.7 walks per nine innings).
The Mets and White Sox combined for 10 runs last night, and have hit the Over in their last three meetings.
I'm backing the Over tonight at even money or better.
Mets vs White Sox home run prediction: Francisco Lindor (+376)
Castillo is having a rough time keeping the ball in the park this year, allowing 1.5 homers per nine innings.
He's given up three long balls in three games since joining the White Sox, and has allowed a concerning 10 home runs in his last six starts overall.
Francisco Lindor may only have 12 homers this year, but he's hitting .355 with a 66.7% hard-hit percentage off sliders this year, which is Castillo's second-favorite pitch.
With Castillo giving up dingers left and right, Lindor is a good bet to go deep on Saturday.
- ML/RL bets: 15-23, -9.29 units
- Over/Under bets: 14-22, -9.09 units
Mets vs White Sox weather
A steady wind blowing out to right field should provide some help for both lineups tonight.
Mets vs White Sox odds
- Moneyline: Mets +100 | White Sox -104
- Run line: Mets -1.5 (+170) | White Sox +1.5 (-178)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+108) | Under 8.5 (-113)
Mets vs White Sox trend
Luis Castillo's teams have gone 3-8 straight up in his last 11 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. White Sox.
How to watch Mets vs White Sox and game info
| Location | Rate Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Saturday, August 22, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, CHSN |
| Mets starting pitcher | Christian Scott (4-3, 3.51 ERA) |
| White Sox starting pitcher | Luis Castillo (4-9, 4.99 ERA) |
Mets vs White Sox latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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