Mets vs Padres Prediction, Picks & Odds — Monday, July 28

Padres SP Dylan Cease's surface stats suggest a poor season on the mound, but those numbers are deceiving. The righty has maintained strikeout prowess especially, and will tap into that vs. the Mets tonight.

Tony Sartori - Contributor at Covers.com
Tony Sartori • Betting Analyst
Jul 28, 2025 • 07:43 ET • 4 min read

MLB

Match starts: 7 hrs
SD
44 %
NYM
56 %
EXPERT PICK - PROP
Dylan Cease o6.5  Strikeouts Thrown (-120) Dylan Cease o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-120)
Read Analysis
Dylan Cease San Diego Padres MLB
Photo By - Imagn Images. Padres RHP Dylan Cease delivers a pitch on the road.

The San Diego Padres host the New York Mets in the opening matchup of this three-game series at Petco Park.

My Mets vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks target San Diego right-hander Dylan Cease and his strikeout ceiling on Monday, July 28.

Mets vs Padres prediction

My Mets vs Padres best bet: Dylan Cease Over 6.5 strikeouts (-120 at Caesars)

San Diego Padres right-hander Dylan Cease takes the mound vs. the visiting New York Mets tonight, and he should serve as a good buy-low candidate. Despite some inconsistent performances, Cease’s underlying metrics suggest he has pitched better on the whole than his surface-level stats indicate.

Cease ranks in the top third of the league in expected ERA (xERA) and expected batting average (xBA). The basis for this expected positive regression is the right-hander's elite ability to retire hitters via strikeout.

He ranks in the 86th percentile in chase rate, 94th in whiff rate, and 88th in strikeout rate, and has recorded seven or more punchouts in six of his past nine starts.

This success will continue against New York. Through 65 combined plate appearances against Cease, this current Mets roster has produced a 29.2% strikeout rate and 27.9% whiff rate.

Caesars QuickPick: Our Mets vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)

Dylan Cease Over 6.5 strikeouts

Jackson Merrill 2+ total bases

Padres -1.5

New York hands the ball to right-hander Frankie Montas, who hasn't looked sharp when he's been healthy over the last couple of seasons.

Meanwhile, Jackson Merrill is in good form, having recorded 19 total bases over his past 44 at-bats.

If both Merrill and Cease perform well, there is an increased correlation with the Padres winning this game. Four of their past five victories have come by at least a two-run margin.

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Mets vs Padres odds

Mets vs Padres live odds

Mets vs Padres opening odds

  • Moneyline: New York +110 | San Diego -130
  • Run line: New York +1.5 (-189) | San Diego -1.5 (+158)
  • Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)

Odds courtesy of Caesars.

Mets vs Padres trend

Cease has recorded seven or more strikeouts in six of his past nine starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Padres.

How to watch Mets vs Padres and game info

Location Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Date Monday, 7-28-2025
First pitch 9:40 p.m. ET
TV SNY, PADRES.tv
Mets starting pitcher Frankie Montas
(3-1, 4.62 ERA)
Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease
(3-10, 4.59 ERA)

Mets vs Padres latest injuries

Mets vs Padres weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Tony Sartori - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Tony Sartori has written over 1,000 pieces of sports betting content across multiple different media outlets. He covers the NHL, UFC, PGA, NFL and MLB. Tony started part-time while attending the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he went on to receive a B.A. in Economics and a certificate in Entrepreneurship in 2022. He continues to work full-time in the sports betting landscape.

Due to the variety of sports he covers, Tony is handicapping every day. If he had one piece of betting advice for a new sports bettor, it would be to strictly enforce bankroll management rules for yourself. If you set aside $10,000 for your betting bankroll, then you should generally only be betting between $100 - $500 per play.

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