The San Diego Padres host the New York Mets in the opening matchup of this three-game series at Petco Park.
My Mets vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks target San Diego right-hander Dylan Cease and his strikeout ceiling on Monday, July 28.
Mets vs Padres prediction
My Mets vs Padres best bet: Dylan Cease Over 6.5 strikeouts (-120 at Caesars)
San Diego Padres right-hander Dylan Cease takes the mound vs. the visiting New York Mets tonight, and he should serve as a good buy-low candidate. Despite some inconsistent performances, Cease’s underlying metrics suggest he has pitched better on the whole than his surface-level stats indicate.
Cease ranks in the top third of the league in expected ERA (xERA) and expected batting average (xBA). The basis for this expected positive regression is the right-hander's elite ability to retire hitters via strikeout.
He ranks in the 86th percentile in chase rate, 94th in whiff rate, and 88th in strikeout rate, and has recorded seven or more punchouts in six of his past nine starts.
This success will continue against New York. Through 65 combined plate appearances against Cease, this current Mets roster has produced a 29.2% strikeout rate and 27.9% whiff rate.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Mets vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
New York hands the ball to right-hander Frankie Montas, who hasn't looked sharp when he's been healthy over the last couple of seasons.
Meanwhile, Jackson Merrill is in good form, having recorded 19 total bases over his past 44 at-bats.
If both Merrill and Cease perform well, there is an increased correlation with the Padres winning this game. Four of their past five victories have come by at least a two-run margin.
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Mets vs Padres odds
Mets vs Padres live odds
Mets vs Padres opening odds
- Moneyline: New York +110 | San Diego -130
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-189) | San Diego -1.5 (+158)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Mets vs Padres trend
Cease has recorded seven or more strikeouts in six of his past nine starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Padres.
How to watch Mets vs Padres and game info
Location | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
Date | Monday, 7-28-2025 |
First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
TV | SNY, PADRES.tv |
Mets starting pitcher | Frankie Montas (3-1, 4.62 ERA) |
Padres starting pitcher | Dylan Cease (3-10, 4.59 ERA) |
Mets vs Padres latest injuries
Mets vs Padres weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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