After splitting the first two games of their weekend series, the Mets and Padres will meet in the rubber match on Sunday in San Diego.
Both sides will send their best arms to the hill in what should be a tantalizing affair. The home team holds only a slight edge according to the MLB odds.
Let’s break down Mets vs. Padres in our MLB picks and predictions for July 9.
Mets vs Padres odds
Mets vs Padres predictions
Just when we thought Mets starter Max Scherzer had begun to figure things out, he gave up three home runs in a loss to the Diamondbacks on Tuesday. In doing so, Scherzer allowed five or more hits for the sixth time in his last seven outings, and continues to put himself behind the proverbial eight ball.
At this point, Scherzer is relying on strikeouts. He’s still sitting down 27.5% of the batters he faces this season — which is an incredible mark — and his walk rate remains low at 5.8%. But his barrel rate of 9.8% is a career-worst, as is his 39.6% hard-hit rate. Making contact is how you get to Scherzer.
That’s something the Padres have done a lot of lately. They’re making contact on 78.1% of their swings and striking out just 20.8% of the time over the last two weeks. It represents a huge area of growth for an offense that has been so poor all season.
I think with Joe Musgrove on the hill, the Padres are deserving favorites and should get this done.
My best bet: Padres moneyline (-130 at DraftKings)
Mets vs Padres same-game parlay
Padres moneyline
Musgrove 5+ strikeouts
Ha-Seong Kim 1+ hits
When Musgrove squared off against the Mets in the playoffs last year, he struck out five over seven frames and allowed just two baserunners. I think he should be more than capable of racking up five again here in what should be a winning effort.
It’s true that the Mets’ strikeout rate over the last two weeks stands at a respectable 21.7%, but this is a team that on the whole has been far less disciplined than it was last year. Against a better offense, five strikeouts in seven innings was somewhat impressive. It should be easy to attain here.
I’m also a fan of Ha-Seong Kim in this spot. He has a .286 lifetime batting average against Scherzer and has been one of the most consistent hitters for San Diego. He has a hit in five of his last six games, and in his last 21 games (dating back to June 15), he’s hitting .324. I think he’s a great value here to get a hit.
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Mets vs Padres moneyline and Over/Under analysis
I spoke at length as to why the Padres moneyline is my best bet above.
As for the total, I still trust Scherzer to keep this game in a somewhat manageable place. Even in giving up three home runs last time out, the right-hander still only yielded four earned runs and managed to punch out eight or more for a fourth straight game.
The home runs have been an issue for Scherzer, but it’s not as if he’s compounded that problem by scattering hits and walks. With that, I would lean towards the Under here as my favorite play on the total.
The Mets, once the kings of contact, rank 15th in contact rate over the last two weeks. They’re sporting a 119 wRC+, which is heavily influenced by an influx of power, but that’s probably not the best way to beat Musgrove. His barrel rate is an incredibly low 5.2% and his hard hit rate of 30.2% puts him among the game’s elites. He simply won’t be surrendering many home runs here.
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Trend to know
The Mets are 6-13 in their last 19 games following a loss. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Padres
Mets vs Padres game info
| Location: | PETCO Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, July 9, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | WPIX, SDPA |
Starting pitchers
Max Scherzer (8-2, 4.03 ERA): The veteran owned a 4.25 ERA in the month of June after he was relatively stable in the month of May. He’s now given up a home run in each of his last six outings, making it nine in total.
Joe Musgrove (7-2, 3.56 ERA): Musgrove struck out a season-high 11 batters in his win over the Angels on Tuesday, and that comes on the heels of a month of June where he posted a sparkling 2.25 ERA.
