The Washington Nationals will try to claim a series win on Monday as they host the New York Mets for the finale of a four-game series.
Expectations are today’s pitching matchup will result in a high-scoring game, but I’m fading that narrative and taking the Under in my Mets vs. Nationals predictions.
Keep reading to see my full analysis of this afternoon’s game in my free MLB picks for Monday, April 28.
Mets vs Nationals prediction
My Mets vs Nationals best bet: Under 10 (-115 at Caesars)
The New York Mets and Washington Nationals are coming off a 15-run slugfest on Sunday, and that seems to have set the tone for what the industry is looking for in the game total market.
But outside of that affair, I’m not sure there’s a good reason to expect this afternoon’s matchup to head into double-digit territory.
First, neither of these teams has been playing to those kinds of totals as of late. Both have played to nine runs or less in eight of their last 10 games overall.
While both teams have plenty of offensive talent — veteran stars pepper the New York lineup, and Washington has some great young bats — the results haven’t quite matched the ability level for either team in the first month of the season.
Both teams average exactly 4.21 runs per game, just below the league average of 4.29. The Mets have a nearly league-average .701 team OPS, with the Nationals (.689) coming in a bit short of that mark.
At a baseline, we can examine these teams to have a natural combined total of 8.5 to 9.0 runs. That means the extra run or more tacked on to today’s number must be due to the pitching matchup.
It’s hard to find fault with how Mets starter Griffin Canning has performed for New York this year. The 28-year-old has allowed two runs or less in four of his first five starts, posting a 3.12 ERA and 3.32 FIP in his first 26 innings of work.
Canning’s improvements from his time with the Los Angeles Angels have been primarily about keeping the ball in the park, as he’s allowed just two home runs after averaging 1.5 homers allowed per nine innings for his career while continuing to strike out a batter per inning.
Perhaps oddsmakers are more concerned about Nationals starter Trevor Williams, who has posted an uninspiring 5.11 ERA this year. But Williams has allowed just two earned runs over 10 innings in his last two starts, and while he’s not going to give Washington much length, he can deliver quality innings while he stays on the mound.
And while his underlying numbers (like a 1.581 WHIP) are poor, they aren’t so disturbingly bad they should significantly move the needle on today’s total.
Does this game appear to have a higher-than-average total? Sure, but getting into double-digit territory seems like a clear overreaction based on what we’ve seen from both teams this year. I’ll be backing the Under this afternoon, and would also do so at 9.5 runs.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Mets vs Nationals same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 10
Mets -1.5
Soto Over 1.5 total bases
Along with backing the Under today, I’m also going to take the Mets to win this game on the run line. While Williams is coming off two strong starts, Canning has been the better and more consistent pitcher overall this season.
And while both teams have put up average offensive numbers for the year, I have more faith in New York to pick up its scoring in the long run. The Mets are the clear favorite in today’s game.
On that note, I’ll also add a bet on Mets slugger Juan Soto to pick up Over 1.5 total bases today. Soto has picked up at least two hits in two of the first three games of this series, and has an excellent matchup against the right-handed Williams this afternoon.
And since I’m taking the Under on the game total, we get a lot of added value by taking anyone to hit their total bases number.
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Mets vs Nationals odds
Mets vs Nationals live odds
Mets vs Nationals opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -161 | Washington +135
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+100) | Washington +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110)
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Mets vs Nationals trend
The Mets have played to totals of Under 10 runs in 11 of their last 13 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Nationals.
How to watch Mets vs Nationals and game info
| Location | Nationals Park, Washingont, DC |
| Date | Monday, 4-28-2025 |
| First pitch | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, MASN2 |
| Mets starting pitcher | Griffin Canning (3-1, 3.12 ERA) |
| Nationals starting pitcher | Trevor Williams (1-2, 5.11 ERA) |
Mets vs Nationals latest injuries
Mets vs Nationals weather
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