It’s a coast-to-coast battle when the New York Mets end a series with the San Francisco Giants tonight in primetime.
Take a look at my Mets vs. Giants predictions and Sunday Night Baseball player props for July 27, featuring Pete Alonso.
Mets vs Giants Sunday Night Baseball props
Senga o2.5 walks (+100)
Devers u1.5 TB (-169)- Alonso o0.5 RBI (+150)
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Mets vs Giants props for Sunday Night Baseball
Kodai Senga Over 2.5 walks (+100 at Caesars)
As a member of the Kodai Senga fan club, I don’t have many negatives to say about him. However, the walk rate is a concern.
The righty will come into this game with a walk rate in the bottom 10% of baseball, and will face a team that has great plate discipline.
That plate discipline starts at the top with Rafael Devers, and while he’s been with the Giants for a while now, I’m still not sure his walk rate is being accounted for enough in opposing pitchers' walk prices. My projections made the number for Senga 3.2, which makes an even-money price point quite appealing.
The Giants have four players in their lineup with a walk rate in the Top 20% of baseball. Beyond them are several hitters that rank above the league average.
Considering the expected length for Senga, there’s value in this number.
Rafael Devers Under 1.5 total bases (-169 at Caesars)
I’m not always jumping to lay -169 on a baseball prop, but I saw value in this down to -192. There are two very viable paths to this bet getting home, and we’ll probably see a mixture of both at play.
One of those is the aforementioned walk rate. Rafael Devers will enter this game with a BB% of almost 16%. That puts him in the elite category of such metrics, ranking in the Top 2% of baseball.
With that in mind, his bases total takes a small hit already before he steps into the box. After that is the matter of the opposing pitcher.
If he’s not walking Devers, Senga stands a pretty good chance of getting him out. In five career plate appearances, the former Boston star has never gotten a hit off Senga. In addition to that, he’s posted just a .139 expected batting average.
The pitch mix that Senga throws aligns with this, as Devers struggles with the majority of them.
Pete Alonso Over 0.5 RBI (+150 at Caesars)
A bullpen game always makes betting on hitter props a tricky endeavor, but Pete Alonso is in a pretty good spot tonight.
For starters, this environment is conducive to success for the Polar Bear. Oracle Park is the No. 3 park in the majors for right-handed hitting, according to the BatX.
We also expect heavy winds blowing out to center field, which increases the likelihood that one of the best power hitters in baseball can send the ball out of the park.
Secondly, there’s the matter of pitching. Alonso will see left-handed opener Matt Gage, who has had a hard-hit issue throughout his career. Alonso is also equipped with a top-50 isolated power rating against southpaws.
He is likely to see a well-rested Tyler Rogers out of the bullpen, against whom he has strong career numbers.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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