The New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks meet this afternoon in the rubber match of a three-game set at Chase Field in Phoenix. First pitch is at 3:40 p.m. ET.
Kodai Senga has been dominant this season, and my Mets vs. Diamondbacks predictions expect his brilliance to continue.
Mets vs Diamondbacks prediction
My Mets vs Diamondbacks best bet: Kodai Senga Under 2.5 earned runs (-140 at bet365)
The New York Mets have the best team ERA in the big leagues at 2.94, and Kodai Senga is a big reason behind it. The right-hander is 3-2 in six starts with a stellar 1.38 ERA. He’s only allowed five earned runs this season while striking out 31 in 32 2/3 innings of work.
Senga has cashed the Under in earned runs surrendered in every appearance in 2025. He also faced the Arizona Diamondbacks last week, giving up one earned run across 4 1/3 innings. In fact, he's carved up Arizona in his short MLB career, posting a 1.00 ERA across three outings.
The 32-year-old has held this current Diamondbacks lineup to a mere .148 average. In 54 at-bats, they have just eight hits. You can see why the odds sit at -140. However, the trends point to another quality start for Senga.
Mets vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Kodai Senga Under 2.5 earned runs
Pete Alonso Over 0.5 singles
Juan Soto Over 0.5 hits
While Juan Soto was the marquee offseason signing, the return of Pete Alonso has been massive for the World Series hopeful Mets. Polar Bear Pete leads the way with a .341 average, nine homers, and 34 RBI.
Of Alonso’s 45 hits, 23 have gone for extra bases. However, he has two singles across his last three games. The slugger also swings it well against Merrill Kelly, who will start for Arizona this afternoon. Alonso is 5-for-16 lifetime with a homer. He’s also posted three multi-hit games in his last five appearances.
After a slow start, Soto is starting to figure things out at the dish. He’s batting .318 in May so far and has cashed the Over in hits in five of his last six contests. Soto has also had some success against Kelly, going 4-for-16.
Soto does hit slightly better at Citi Field with a .263 average compared to .247 on the road. He’s having more quality at-bats and is starting to look like the player the Mets signed this past winter. He’ll make his presence felt in the series finale.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Diamondbacks odds
Mets vs Diamondbacks live odds
Mets vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -130 | Arizona +110
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+125) | Arizona +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110)
Mets vs Diamondbacks trend
The Mets have covered the run line in 14 of their last 23 games (+7.25 units / 25% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Mets vs Diamondbacks and game info
| Location | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Wednesday, 5-7-2025 |
| First pitch | 3:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, ARID |
| Mets starting pitcher | Kodai Senga (3-2, 1.38 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Merrill Kelly (3-1, 4.06 ERA) |
Mets vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Mets vs Diamondbacks weather
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