A pair of storied National League franchises begin a three-game set, with the St. Louis Cardinals hosting the New York Mets at Busch Stadium tonight.
St. Louis will send veteran righty Sonny Gray to the hill to take on a rolling New York lineup, and he headlines my Mets vs. Cardinals predictions.
Find out more in my MLB picks for Friday, May 2.
Mets vs Cardinals prediction
My Mets vs Cardinals best bet: Sonny Gray Under 17.5 outs recorded (+135 at DraftKings)
It’s largely been business as usual for St. Louis Cardinals veteran Sonny Gray, with his 3.60 ERA in line with his 3.51 career mark. Still, the underlying numbers highlight Father Time might be knocking on the door of the 35-year-old righty.
His fastball velocity is down, and his xFIP is at 3.53 after posting a 2.82 mark in 2024. Additionally, Gray's 76.7% strand rate and .253 BABIP are better than his respective 67.9% and .299 marks from last year.
Meanwhile, the New York Mets hold a solid .318 wOBA and .171 ISO against right-handed pitching, and I think the best is still ahead. Prized offseason acquisition Juan Soto is sporting an uncharacteristically low .338 wOBA against righties, and third baseman Mark Vientos is just beginning to heat up after a poor start, including a .333 wOBA vs. RHP.
The Mets recently got a long look at Gray back on April 20, and he surrendered three earned runs across six innings during a 7-4 New York win. The Mets also rank fifth in baseball with a 130 wRC+ across their last 14 games.
Additionally, the St. Louis bullpen has its best arms rested and available, and Gray has thrown 285 pitches over 19 innings across his past three starts.
Mets vs Cardinals same-game parlay (SGP)
Sonny Gray Under 17.5 outs recorded
Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Juan Soto Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
As highlighted, it hasn’t been a true standout start for Soto in his new digs. Still, Thursday’s two-homer outburst has the first-year Met rocking an 8-for-25 stretch, including four extra-base hits and a 1.073 OPS through his past seven contests.
Soto also entered 2025 with a monster .414 wOBA and .975 OPS against righties over the prior three seasons, and he’s a career 5-for-10 with a 1.400 OPS against Gray.
Turning to Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor, he took Gray deep in the meeting earlier this season and has a .949 OPS against the veteran righty across 29 plate appearances. Lindor has also been a force against right-handed pitchers, boasting a high-end .366 wOBA and .847 OPS dating back to the beginning of last year.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Cardinals odds
Mets vs Cardinals live odds
Mets vs Cardinals opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -120 | St. Louis +100
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+140) | St. Louis +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)
Mets vs Cardinals trend
New York has won 18 of its last 26 games (+6.55 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Cardinals.
How to watch Mets vs Cardinals and game info
| Location | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, Missouri |
| Date | Friday, 5-2-2025 |
| First pitch | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, FanDuel Sports Network-Midwest |
| Mets starting pitcher | Clay Holmes (3-1, 2.64 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Sonny Gray (3-0, 3.60 ERA) |
Mets vs Cardinals latest injuries
Mets vs Cardinals weather
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