Mets vs Braves Predictions, Picks, Odds: Atlanta Bats Will Be Hopping on Mad Max

The New York Mets will send Max Scherzer to the bump tonight at Truist Park vs. Charlie Morton and the Atlanta Braves. MLB odds have the visitors sitting as slight +105 dogs with a total of 9.5.

The home side took the opener last night, 6-4, thanks to a four-run sixth inning as a -160 home favorite.

With this total moving from 8.5 to 9.5 and hitting conditions prime at Truist Park, should bettors be looking to fade a pair of sub-4.00 ERA pitchers on Wednesday night?

Find out where my best bet lies in our MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs. Braves on June 7.

Mets vs Braves odds

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Mets vs Braves predictions

Max Scherzer has been great over his last six starts for the Mets, allowing just one run or fewer five times. But he has also seen some bad offenses in that stretch, including Philadelphia, Colorado, Cleveland, Washington, and Detroit. He just recently hit the 100-pitch mark two starts ago and that makes today a great day to fade his total outs props, which can be found at Under 17.5 outs at -105.

First is the matchup. This is a dangerous Braves lineup, and with Marcell Ozuna swinging a hot stick and posting the No. 4 OPS in baseball since May 1, it’s a tough offense from top to bottom.

The Atlanta lineup will also have a huge advantage, as Truist Park is one of the best hitting parks in all of baseball today. It will be 85 degrees with 40% humidity and double-digit winds blowing out to center. Scherzer is an extreme flyball pitcher and has a 30% groundball rate. Additionally, the majority of the Atlanta starting nine have taken the Mets’ starter deep over their careers.

THE BAT is also projecting an abbreviated outing for the right-hander at 15.4 outs recorded and 2.86 earned runs. Oddsmakers have his earned run total at 3.5, meaning Scherzer could be seeing some base-runners today as well, and pitching often in high-stress situations. 

Both starters’ Under outs project well, but I’m taking Scherzer’s Under 17.5 outs, as the Braves' offense is a much better unit.

My best bet: Scherzer Under 17.5 outs recorded (-105 at Betway)

Mets vs Braves moneyline analysis

Atlanta closed as a -160 home favorite last night in a pitching matchup that favored the home side slightly. In a neutral pitching matchup and on a neutral field, Atlanta should be a -135 to -140 favorite. This underperforming New York offense consists of just one hitter with an OPS of .800 or greater, and just two batters with an OPS above .710.

The Braves opened as a -115 home favorite but have been bet up to -125. Even BetMGM has moved to -135 as of this afternoon. The weather and hitting conditions are favoring the home team, and bettors have adjusted. 

Scherzer is the better of the two starters, but we shouldn’t discount Charlie Morton here, who enters the home start with better numbers than last season. If it weren’t for some uncharacteristic walk issues, he would have even better peripherals. I’m pricing this closer to -135 for the Braves thanks to the edge they have on offense. 

Ozuna is raking and was the catalyst last night, and if Michael Harris II can figure it out this season, this is a scary 1-through-9 with no easy outs. The same can’t be said for the Mets, who started five players (all in the bottom of the order) with an OPS of .681 or lower yesterday. 

The power difference in this matchup coupled with the hitting conditions is the reason bettors are jumping on the Braves, and I’m doing the same at -125. I would take them at -130 as well.

Mets vs Braves Over/Under analysis

This total opened at 8.5, hit a flat 9 last night, and then reached 9.5 by this morning.

The weather and hitting conditions are driving this total with mid-80 temperatures, decent humidity, and double-digit winds blowing out. Having a pair of flyball pitchers is also likely to help drive this Over. Truist Park is one of the best hitting environments on the slate today.

THE BAT is projecting nearly six total runs from both starters combined and some shorter outings. That would give some value to the F5 Over 5 at -110 or better, but the full-game Over 9.5 at -105 or better is still a decent bet, as both bullpens have their issues. 

The Mets will likely be without two important middle relievers in Adam Ottavino and Drew Smith, who both threw over 20 pitches last night. This is also a bullpen that currently ranks 26th in WAR at Fangraphs. 

Atlanta closer Raisel Iglesias has also pitched three times over four days and might get a breather as well.

Despite the ERA’s of today’s starting pitchers, bettors are expecting runs, and they’re right to do so with the hitting conditions Wednesday night at Truist Park.

Mets vs Braves game info

Starting pitchers

Max Scherzer (5-2, 3.21 ERA): Scherzer will be making his 10th start of the season, and the 38-year-old right-hander has allowed one or fewer runs in six of his last seven starts. The Mets are 7-2 SU in Scherzer’s nine starts this year and have won four straight games with the veteran on the mound. But he’s also seen some weak offenses in five straight starts. He’s reached the 100-pitch mark in back-to-back starts and THE BAT is projecting 86 pitches, 15.4 outs, 5.95 strikeouts, and 2.86 earned runs.

Charlie Morton (5-6, 3.62 ERA): Morton is having a great year with a solid 32% CSW%. He does throw a lot of pitches per plate appearance thanks to his high K% and BB%. Atlanta is 5-6 SU when he starts, and THE BAT is projecting 93 pitches, 15.8 outs, 5.92 strikeouts, and 2.66 earned runs. 

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