The Toronto Blue Jays' season is quickly coming to a close, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the young core get a great test when they take on the New York Mets, who are fighting for a postseason berth.
Mets vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Under 4.5 F5 (-125 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
It was another heartbreaking, late-inning loss for the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday night, a night where they actually got solid innings from what has been a tough bullpen to watch. However, two runs in the top of the eighth sunk the Jays’ chances of the upset.
Toronto will be underdogs once again in tonight’s matchup, but don’t be surprised if they put up another fight.
That begins with starter Chris Bassitt. Like with many Blue Jays players, it’s been a season full of highs and lows for the veteran right-hander. His last handful of starts have been a perfect example of that.
Bassitt had solid recent starts against the Phillies, Red Sox, and Orioles, but was been tagged by the A’s and Angels. It’s hard to tell what you’ll get from Bassitt from game to game, but he is a proven veteran and has solid numbers against current New York Mets hitters. In fact, he is limiting them to a .203 expected batting average and a .314 expected slugging over 86 career plate appearances.
And while the Mets have been surging, the lineup has been middling since the start of August, ranking 18th in batting average, 15th in OPS, and 11th in wRC+.
New York counters Bassitt with David Peterson. The 29-year-old left-hander has put up some solid results this season, pitching to a 2.75 ERA. Although the advanced stats don’t love him, he should still be effective in this matchup against the Blue Jays.
Despite Toronto’s recent success at the plate, the team continues to struggle vs. southpaws. The Blue Jays enter this game ranked 26th in batting average and OPS and 24th in wRC+ when facing lefties this season.
Even though the Blue Jays bullpen put on a solid performance yesterday, I’m still not trusting them with a full-game total. So, I’m on the five-inning Under instead.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+175 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
While the Blue Jays struggle as a team against left-handed pitchers, you can’t say the same for Vladimir Guerrero Jr..
The Blue Jays star first baseman — who enters this game hitting .322 with a .945 OPS, 28 home runs, and 94 RBI — is not surprisingly smashing southpaws. Vladdy has tagged left-handers for a .327 average and a 1.027 OPS this season.
And as I alluded to, the advanced numbers don’t love Peterson. His expected ERA sits at 4.87, more than two runs higher than his 2.75 ERA. He is also pitching to a .269 opponent expected batting average, which ranks in the Bottom 15% of the league.
Vladdy has driven in at least one run in eight of his last 14 games, so the +175 on the Over 0.5 RBI is just too good to pass up. And at that price, our Covers Prop Projections have it as a five-star play.
Ontario sports bettors: Play the Jays your way with PROLINE+
Ontario-owned and operated, PROLINE+ has a robust market offering at its disposal and reinvests 100% of its profits back into the province — join today!
Mets vs Blue Jays odds
Mets vs Blue Jays live odds
Mets vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -140 | Toronto +120
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+120) | Toronto +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Mets vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this interleague matchup as +120 home underdogs but early bettors have seen some value in the home dog with Toronto now in the +110 range.
- Underlying metrics say Peterson is due for a regression, while Bassitt has solid numbers against Mets batters. But the Blue Jays' bullpen could remain a problem for moneyline bettors.
- The total hit the board at an even 8 and that's where it remains as of Tuesday afternoon.
- Once again, my preference is on the five-inning total over the full-game, considering the Blue Jays' relief corps has the third-worst ERA is baseball.
Mets vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays have covered the run line in 26 of their last 42 games for +9.45 Units and a 17% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Blue Jays.
Mets vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Tuesday, 9-10-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, SNY |
| Mets starting pitcher: | David Peterson (9-1, 2.75 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Chris Bassitt (9-13, 4.30 ERA) |
Mets vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Mets vs Blue Jays weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
