The New York Mets head to Texas to kick off an interleague series with the Houston Astros on Monday night at Minute Maid Park.
Both teams could use a win in the worst way. The Mets have dropped four of their last five series and are just 3-11 across their last 14 games.
The Astros are also down bad, losing nine of their last 12 — most recently a three-game sweep at the hands of the Cincinnati Reds.
Looking at MLB odds, the home team is the slight favorite on the moneyline, but I’ve picked out a different bet that contains better value.
Check out which starting pitcher prop I’ve selected as my best bet for and my full MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs. Astros on Monday, June 19.
Mets vs Astros odds
Mets vs Astros predictions
Monday’s best bet will be centered around Houston Astros rookie right-hande Hunter Brown and his strikeout prop, which is set at 5.5 across the board.
Brown has certainly been impressive this season, sporting a 3.64 xERA and 3.30 FIP. He’s managed a 27.1% strikeout rate that has beaten most preseason projections, with the most bearish — THE BAT — calling for a 24.9% K-rate from the 24-year-old hurler.
Interestingly enough, his in-season projections have moved even lower. THE BAT is still the most bearish, calling for a 23.2% K-rate the rest of the way, while ATC DC isn’t much higher at 24.5%. How can that be the case when Brown is notching a robust 9.92 strikeouts per nine innings?
First off, Brown’s 10.9% swinging strike rate isn’t exactly anything special. For comparison’s sake, his pitching counterpart Max Scherzer’s swinging strike rate is 3.2 percentage points higher (14.1%) while his K-rate is actually 1.8 percentage points lower (25.3%). Swinging strike rate isn’t a perfect indicator of future strikeouts, but it’s definitely an underlying metric that I like to look at — and Brown’s points toward regression.
There are other underlying numbers that indicate something similar. His Whiff% (45th percentile) and Chase Rate (44th percentile) are both below league average, and the spin rate on his pitches (45th percentile on his fastball, 50th percentile on his curve) is nothing out of the ordinary.
He faces a New York Mets lineup that has been great at avoiding strikeouts when facing right-handed pitching. They have the fourth-lowest K-rate against righties on the year at 20.5% and rank top-10 in walk rate (9.2%), so they like to grind out counts and make pitchers work.
Brown is hardly matchup-proof in the strikeout department. He’s recorded fewer than 5.5 punchouts in each of his last two outings, and both came against teams that don’t whiff against right-handers — the Nationals and the Blue Jays.
He racked up 35 total Ks in his four outings before that, with the major caveat being that those came against the three most strikeout-prone lineups in MLB across the last 10 days — the Twins (30.8% K-rate), the Athletics twice (29.2%), and the White Sox (28.8%).
If you exclude those teams, Brown has gone Under 5.5 Ks in each of his last four starts. It really just depends on which numbers you’d like to favor. For me, the matchups are screaming out loud and help explain why Brown has beaten his projections thus far.
I’ll take Brown to go Under 5.5 strikeouts at slight plus money as I believe his numbers are inflated from getting some very favorable matchups.
My best bet: Hunter Brown Under 5.5 strikeouts (+105 at DraftKings)
Mets vs Astros same-game parlay
Hunter Brown Under 5.5 strikeouts (+100)
Max Scherzer 5+ strikeouts (-300)
Under 8.5 (-175)
We’re using our best bet — Brown to notch fewer than 5.5 strikeouts — as the first leg of our SGP.
Secondly, we’ll add Scherzer to notch at least five strikeouts, considering he’s done so in five of his last six starts. He’s still posting a strong 14.1% swinging strike rate while ranking in the 84th percentile in fastball spin rate and in the 88th percentile in curve spin rate.
I’m adding the Under using the alternate total of 8.5. Scherzer has enough positive signs in his underlying metrics to expect a rebound and he was grooving before getting touched up in his last few starts. And even if he doesn't rack up Ks tonight, Brown has still been tremendous as a rookie with neither lineup looking particularly noteworthy.
That brings out SGP to +210 odds. It’s not exactly a “get rich or die trying” maneuver, but those are the types of bets you should avoid making. This one returns nice plus odds using three plays that are very correlated.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Mets vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Astros are listed between -115 and -122 depending on the book. Be sure to shop around using our MLB odds tool to ensure you snag the best line available.
The Astros enter this series after a run of poor performances in which they’ve lost four straight, including a three-game sweep at home against the Reds. They’ve lost nine of their last 12 games in what’s been the roughest stretch of their season to date.
The Mets are also struggling, having lost 11 of their last 14 games to move five games under .500. They’ve lost four of their last five series and are in danger of having the season spiral out of control — if it hasn’t already. They did return Pete Alonso to the lineup Sunday, who will be a huge boost for a team currently resembling a rudderless ship.
The total is set at 7.5 across the board.
Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley remain on the shelf for an ailing Houston lineup that has simply been middle-of-the-road lately, ranking 17th in wRC+ (101) over the last 10 days.
The Mets welcome back Alonso and Francisco Lindor to a lineup that has also been mediocre lately, posting the exact same wRC+ (101) as the Astros in the last 10 days.
I lean toward the Under and recommend using the alternate total of 8.5 if using it as an SGP leg in order to provide a bit of cushion.
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Trend to know
Brown has recorded fewer than 5.5 strikeouts in each of his last four starts against teams that don’t rank in the top 3 in strikeout rate across the last 10 days. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Astros
Mets vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Monday, June 19, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SportsNet New York, AT&T Sportsnet Houston |
Starting pitchers
Max Scherzer (5-2, 4.45 ERA): It’s been a season to forget for the veteran, who has blown two leads in his last two outings. He believes that the primary reason for his struggles has been a slider that he leaves hanging far too often and that may be true, as opponents are batting .268 against it while knocking five home runs. His 3.62 xERA is a positive sign, but his 4.35 FIP is not.
Hunter Brown (6-3, 3.35 ERA): The 24-year-old’s 3.64 xERA and 3.30 FIP do not indicate much regression from his solid 3.35 ERA. He’s been slightly better at Minute Maid Park (3.21 ERA) than away from it (3.46). His last outing was a successful one, as he lasted seven scoreless innings in a win against the Washington Nationals.
