The Detroit Tigers host the Seattle Mariners in Game 4 of the ALDS this afternoon. The Tigers have their backs against the wall with the M's up two games to one in this best-of-five series.
I'm expecting that desperation to lead to a strong performance from Detroit in a matchup against struggling Seattle starter Bryce Miller.
See how that factors into my MLB picks as I bring you my three favorite MLB player props and Mariners vs. Tigers predictions on Wednesday, October 8.
Mariners vs Tigers Game 4 props
| Player |  |
|---|---|
 Casey Mize Over 3.5 strikeouts |
+115 |
 Bryce Miller Over 1.5 earned runs |
-190 |
| Riley Greene Over 1.5 total bases |
+125 |
Mariners vs Tigers player prop picks
Prop #1: Casey Mize Over 3.5 strikeouts
Detroit Tigers right-hander Casey Mize generated just one strikeout in three innings in his postseason debut last week.
That said, the starter ended the season with some strong performances. He fanned 29 batters in 23 1/3 innings over his last four regular-season starts, which included three outings of 8+ strikeouts.
The Seattle Mariners have been hitting for power significantly better on the road, but are striking out at a high rate regardless of the venue. The M's are 23rd in the majors in strikeout rate (23.4%) while ranking 28th in whiff rate.
Prop #2: Bryce Miller Over 1.5 earned runs
Bryce Miller has been terrible this year, sitting in the Bottom 10th percentile in expected ERA (5.29) and expected batting average (.285) while posting the worst average exit velocity among all qualifying pitchers.
Miller will face a desperate Tigers squad that was third in the AL in OPS (.769) and runs per game (4.91) at home during the regular season.
The righty likely won't pitch deep into this contest, but the O/U on his earned runs still seems off at 1.5. He has surrendered 2+ runs in each of his last 12 starts, pitching to a 6.79 ERA over that span.
Prop #3: Riley Greene Over 1.5 total bases
Miller gets hit hard, especially by left-handed hitters who slug .530 against him. That's bad news against Tigers outfielder Riley Greene, who finished the regular season with 296 total bases (16th in MLB).
Greene slugged .563 with the platoon advantage, and he'll benefit from home-field advantage today. He also makes excellent contact against four-seamers, splitters, and curveballs, and those pitches make up 85% of Miller's offerings against lefties.
How to watch Mariners vs Tigers and Game 4 info
| Location | Comerica Park, Detroit, MI |
| Date | Wednesday, October 8, 2025 |
| First pitch | 3:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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