The Seattle Mariners and Boston Red Sox face off in MLB action on Tuesday. These teams combined for a whopping 21 runs last night, and my Mariners vs. Red Sox predictions are betting on another big performance from a Boston slugger today.
Here are my best free MLB picks for this AL showdown on July 30.
Mariners vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases (-110 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers is one of the top hitters in the world and he has a very favorable matchup tonight.
The two-time Silver Slugger is sixth in the majors in slugging percentage (.589) while racking up 206 total bases in 93 games. His numbers get even better at Fenway, where he slugs .607, and his ability to hit to the opposite field will be on full display today with the wind projected to blow towards the shallow left field wall at 16 mph.
The Seattle Mariners are sending Luis Castillo to the mound and while he has a 3.38 ERA in 22 starts, his xERA is 3.86. He has also been worse away from pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, posting a 4.11 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP in 10 road starts.
In addition, Castillo has terrible platoon splits with lefties batting .273 and posting an OPS of .804 against him. The left-handed Devers crushes the ball against righties, slugging .714. Devers has been on fire over the last month, slashing .341/.416/.671, and that red-hot play should continue today.
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Mariners vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases
Luis Castillo 6+ hits allowed
Mariners team total Over 5.5
Devers isn't the only hitter that can take advantage of Castillo's poor platoon splits with the Red Sox boasting six lefties in their lineup. They've also been red-hot since the All-Star break, batting .297 while plating 6+ runs in eight of the last nine games.
That said, the Mariners should also be able to put up runs today. The BoSox are starting James Paxton, whom they re-acquired in a trade with the Dodgers just four days ago, and he has an xERA of 4.87 with a 1.46 WHIP in 18 starts.
The Mariners strike out at the highest rate in the majors but they'll have an easier time making contact against Paxton, who ranks in the Bottom 10th percentile in strikeout rate while sitting in the Bottom 20th percentile in chase and whiff rate.
The Mariners have the fourth-highest walk rate (9%) in the majors, which will help them get on base against Paxton, who has issued 48 free passes in 89 1/3 innings. They should be able to drive in those runners since they rank fourth in exit velocity and third in hard-hit rate while Paxton is in the Bottom 15th percentile in both categories.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mariners vs Red Sox odds
Mariners vs Red Sox live odds
Mariners vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: Seattle -1.5 (+125) | Boston +1.5 (-155)
- Moneyline: Seattle -130 | Boston +105
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+105) | Under -9.5 (-120)
Mariners vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- Early money has come in on the Red Sox and the Over, slimming the moneyline from Seattle -130 to -118 and shifting the total to 10.
- The Red Sox won 14-7 last night to improve their record to 56-49.
- The Mariners are tied for first place in the AL West with a 56-52 mark but they are just 2-5 in Castillo's last seven starts.
- Both teams strike out at a high rate but when they make contact they drive the ball. The Red Sox are sixth in the majors in xwOBAcon (.388) while the M's are seventh (.385).
Mariners vs Red Sox trend
The Over is 8-1 in Boston's last nine games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Red Sox.
Mariners vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 7-30-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | RSNW, NESN |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Luis Castillo (8-10, 3.38 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | James Paxton (8-2, 4.43 ERA) |
Mariners vs Red Sox latest injuries
Mariners vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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