The Seattle Mariners (49-43) and San Diego Padres (49-45) begin a quick two-game series at Petco Park this evening.
Logan Gilbert is amid his best season on the mound, and my Mariners vs. Padres predictions expect the Seattle ace to shine when he takes the hill.
Read more in our MLB picks for Tuesday, July 9.
Mariners vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Logan Gilbert Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-115 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Logan Gilbert has been one of the MLB’s elite starting pitchers so far, entering tonight with a pristine 2.91 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in his first 18 starts. He’s been particularly effective on the road with a 2.75 ERA, so the Seattle Mariners will hope for him to be at his best yet again to break out of a funk in which they've dropped six of their last eight games.
The San Diego Padres present a tough test, ranking second in wRC+ (120) and third in wOBA (.331) against right-handed pitching. However, those numbers dip a bit (112 wRC+ and .320 wOBA) when isolated for the last 15 days, and I believe that Gilbert has what it takes to get the better of this matchup.
Bookmakers have priced Gilbert’s strikeout prop at 4.5 even though he’s recorded five or more punchouts in 14 of his 18 starts. How do we arrive at a number so low?
It’s because the Padres have the league’s lowest K rate (18.4%) against RHP, but it’s not as though they’re immune to the punchout. Most recently, Ryne Nelson (5) and Brandon Pfaadt (6) recorded more than 4.5 strikeouts against this lineup.
Teams rarely face a right-handed start as effective as Gilbert, but the Padres have proven that they aren’t ironproof against the strikeout when they face an ace. Nathan Eovaldi (6), Aaron Nola (6), and Tyler Glasnow (10) both found success against the Friars, and outside of those three names, San Diego hasn’t faced many high-strikeout righties on the year.
Gilbert is posting a career-high 14.2% swinging strike rate while effectively pitching deeply into games, tying for the second-most quality starts (14). He avoids walks (5.3% walk rate) and generates a lot of whiffs (82nd percentile whiff rate).
Let's take him to rack up at least five strikeouts at Petco tonight.
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Mariners vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Logan Gilbert 5+ strikeouts
Adam Mazur 5+ strikeouts
Under 7.5
One of the reasons that Seattle is tumbling down the standings is because their lineup simply isn’t up to the task. The Mariners own a K rate of 34.5% against RHP pitching across the last 15 days, nearly five percentage points higher than the next-closest team.
The M's also have the league’s worst batting average (.184) and OPS (.587) against RHP in that span, so it’s hard to look the other way against those numbers.
Padres hurler Adam Mazur has had a rough start to his career, but his 4.80 xERA at least inspires some hope for positive regression and this is a perfect opportunity to find his groove.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mariners vs Padres odds
Mariners vs Padres live odds
Mariners vs Padres opening odds
- Run line: Seattle -1.5 (+120)| San Diego +1.5 (-140)
- Moneyline: Seattle -150 | San Diego +125
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (+100)
Mariners vs Padres spread and Over/Under analysis
- Seattle hasn’t found much success on the road (19-25) and is just 4-4 in Gilbert’s eight starts away from home.
- Gilbert has his work cut out for him as San Diego has hit its team total Over in 12 of its last 16 home games.
- The Mariners have trended to the Under with Gilbert on the mound, going 2-6 O/U in his last eight starts.
Mariners vs Padres trend
Gilbert has recorded 5+ strikeouts in 14 of his 18 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Padres
Mariners vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 7-9-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Root Sports, Padres TV |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Logan Gilbert (5-5, 2.91 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Adam Mazur (1-2, 7.52 ERA) |
Mariners vs Padres latest injuries
Mariners vs Padres weather
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