Mariners vs Blue Jays Prop Picks & Best Bets for ALCS Game 1

Player
Vladimir Guerrero Over 1.5 total bases	+100
Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 strikeouts	-150
Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 hits	+105

Mariners vs Blue Jays player prop picks

Prop #1: Vladimir Guerrero Over 1.5 bases

+100 at BetMGM

It's fair to expect some offensive regression from the Toronto Blue Jays in this series — their outburst against the Yankees simply isn't sustainable. But this doesn't feel like the spot where that downturn begins. The Seattle Mariners marathon game on Friday left their bullpen stretched thin, and Toronto stands to benefit the most from that exhaustion. 

The Mariners were forced to cycle through a large portion of their relief staff, and the starter in this matchup feels like an afterthought given his likely short leash. Once he exits, Seattle will almost certainly need to rely on some of its less trusted bullpen arms to get through the middle and late innings.

That creates a perfect environment for the Jays' offense and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to stay productive, even if a slight regression is expected over the long run.

With the Mariners' pitching depth compromised, I'm backing the player who's been the heartbeat of Toronto's lineup (and slugging an eye-popping 1.05 this postseason) to stay hot for at least one more game. Simply put, this is a matchup that tilts heavily toward Toronto's ability to keep generating offense against fatigued arms.

Prop #2: Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 strikeouts

-150 at BetMGM

This is a bargain, and I'm inclined to do a mini-ladder of sorts, but I feel best about the 5.5 number. Again, the situational aspect plays a huge part in this handicap. It's baked into the line, but not enough.

After playing a marathon of a baseball game deep into the night, followed by a champagne-filled locker room celebration, Seattle eventually had to hop on a plane. Similar situations involving simple west-coast-to-east-coast travel have already yielded higher strikeout totals than usual—and now you add in these extra dynamics.

Of course, there's also the matchup itself, even when ignoring the situational factors. It's not surpassing the 30% mark like it was two years ago, but Kevin Gausman still brings an above-average strikeout rate into this matchup.

Even with a power-filled lineup, there's plenty of swing-and-miss in this Mariners order. That was best evidenced Saturday night when Tarik Skubal recorded 13 strikeouts. All of this aligns to make this an ideal spot to back Gausman on the mound.

Prop #3: Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 hits

+105 at BetMGM

Notice a theme? Will continue to fade the Mariners' bats with our last prop on the game. I'll take the Under 0.5 hits for the 34-year-old, he figures to have a fairly difficult matchup in this one.

This version of Gausman is essentially a two-pitch thrower. The fastball and split finger make up over 80% of his throwing arsenal. That split finger is going to be tricky for Suarez to have success with.

The season-long numbers tell the story plainly. Coming into this matchup he's hit just .167 against the pitch with an expected batting average that follows closely. Almost as nearly as important are his very high strikeout rates against such pitches. 

It follows pretty closely with my general thinking on the matchup: Eugenio Suarez is the ideal candidate to get swing and miss from

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