Mariners vs Blue Jays Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

Since returning home, the Toronto Blue Jays — particularly the offense — look like a completely different beast, scoring 10 runs over two games, both wins, against the Seattle Mariners.

Wednesday's series finale looks like a bit of a toss-up in the MLB odds, as a solid pitching duel awaits between Logan Gilbert and Yusei Kikuchi.

My MLB picks and Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions like the pitching matchup on Wednesday, April 10, but a certain bat can be expected to continue rounding into form as well.

Mariners vs Blue Jays prediction

My best bet
Under 8.5 (-132 at PROLINE+)

My analysis
While the Toronto Blue Jays bats have woken up with 22 base hits and 10 combined runs over the first two games of this set with the Seattle Mariners, neither game has gone above today's set total of 8.5. 

And for how encouraging the turnaround has been since returning to Rogers Centre, let's not forget that this is the same lineup that was no-hit and one-hit in the span of three games against the Houston Astros. This afternoon, they draw Logan Gilbert. The right-hander has looked sharp through two starts, allowing five runs over 12 2/3 innings. He's been a reliable presence in the Mariners rotation the past two seasons, rarely getting blown up while limiting walks.

While the Jays were able to topple both Luis Castillo and George Kirby — two other ace-level hurlers — both have struggled out of the gate this season. And the Seattle bullpen has largely kept Toronto in check, allowing just one run in the two games. With Castillo and Kirby combining for just nine innings, the Mariners will be looking for Gilbert to provide a little extra length and help preserve the relief corps a tad, but they do have an off day on Thursday, and top reliever Andres Munoz hasn't been used in the series yet.

The Blue Jays counter with lefty Yusei Kikuchi, who has proven himself to be a capable back-end arm in Toronto's rotation after a rocky start to his tenure. He hasn't pitched deep into games, but he's been effective in the 9 2/3 innings he's pitched to start the year, allowing three runs while striking out 11. The five walks have limited how long he's been able to go, but this Mariners lineup is not exhibiting great patience at the plate, with a 7.4% walk rate to open the year (25th in MLB).

For the third consecutive season, Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez is off to a frigid start at the plate, batting .196 with no home runs through 50 plate appearances. As one of the club's table-setters, his inability to get on base limits their scoring upside. He will turn it around — he did in 2022 and 2023 in a big way — but he, like the rest of the offense, has yet to show that spark, as evidenced by an MLB-worst 28.5% strikeout rate. 

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Blue Jays star player prop

My best bet
Bo Bichette Over 0.5 RBI (+175 at PROLINE+)

Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette finally connected on his first home run of the season, a 431-foot tank job off Kirby. And while I expect Wednesday's series finale to be a relatively low-scoring game, Bichette is a prime candidate to be involved in what runs we do see.

Betting on a player to tally an RBI is all about opportunity. The Jays have played with where they hit Bichette in the lineup over his career, but he seems firmly entrenched in the three-spot this season, behind George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. For whatever their flaws, both Springer and Vlad have exhibited strong on-base skills, making it more likely that batters will be on when Bichette comes up to bat at some point.

As effective as Gilbert has been, he's never been an elite strikeout pitcher, instead relying on pitch-to-contact skills to navigate opposing lineups. This means he'll give up his fair share of hits and, on occasion, runs. 

Although Bo has started poorly with the bat, the .205/.295/.385 slash line doesn't do him justice. Bichette is striking out only 18.2% of the time, which would be a career low. So, too, would his .233 BABIP. This is a player who has consistently made strong contact and has never hit below .290 in a full season. 

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Mariners vs Blue Jays odds

Mariners vs Blue Jays live odds

Mariners vs Blue Jays opening odds

• Run line: Seattle -1.5 (+155) | Toronto +1.5 (-185)
• Moneyline: Seattle -102 | Toronto -106
• Over/Under: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)

Mariners vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis

• The moneyline opened close to a pick'em and hasn't moved much since, with Toronto -115 and Seattle -105 representing the most extreme lines.
  
  
• By winning the first two games of this series, the Blue Jays have moved to 6-6, while the Mariners have fallen to 4-8.
  
  
• The total opened at a flat 8.0. It's still widely available at that number, but some books have bumped up to 8.5.
  
  
• Neither team has scored at top rates, as both the Jays and Mariners rank in the bottom third in runs.

Mariners vs Blue Jays trend

The Blue Jays have hit the Under in 61 of their last 111 games (+11.50 units / 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Blue Jays

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