It has been a rough start to the season for the Toronto Blue Jays. Their bats have been silent and it won’t get any easier in their home opener when they welcome Luis Castillo and the Seattle Mariners to town.
However, the MLB odds say Toronto will have a chance as they hand the ball to Jose Berrios in Game 1 but more importantly, it means runs could be blocked out like a total eclipse. Total is the key word here.
I break down this American League matchup in my MLB picks and predictions for Mariners vs. Blue Jays on Monday, April 8.
Mariners vs Blue Jays odds
Mariners vs Blue Jays predictions
The Toronto Blue Jays are set to play their home opener against the Seattle Mariners following a disappointing but not totally unexpected 4-6 road trip to start the season.
The same issues that plagued the Blue Jays last season have returned. They can’t score runs when it matters. Particularly against right-handed pitchers.
Toronto is hitting just .193 vs. right-handed pitchers so far this season. That ranks 28th in baseball. The Jays also rank 27th in OPS and 26th in wRC+ vs. righties this season. Overall they are putting up just 3.6 runs per game.
Toronto is just giving too many at-bats to sub-par hitters, basically five through nine in the lineup. Compounded by the fact that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are slumping to start the season.
That’s not great going against a guy like Luis Castillo. The 31-year-old right-hander is coming off another solid season with the Mariners, where he pitched to a 3.83 expected ERA. While he’s been knocked around a bit in his first two starts, his pedigree says a bounceback is likely and a matchup with a sputtering Jays lineup makes it even more so.
Toronto counters Castillo with Jose Berrios. The veteran right-hander has been one of the few bright spots for the Blue Jays in the early part of this season. Berrios has posted back-to-back quality starts having allowed three earned runs on 12 hits over 12 innings.
And the Blue Jays aren’t the only team with a lackluster offense in this matchup. Seattle ranks 25th in batting average, 28th in OPS and 29th in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitchers this season. On top of that, the Mariners have the highest strikeout rate in baseball during the early goings.
So, when I see a total of 8.5 I immediately think that is too high. With the Blue Jays bullpen also dealing with some injuries let’s take the first five total which is also too high at 4.5.
Until this Blue Jays’ lineup can prove it can hit against standard pitching, let alone someone as good as Castillo they are going to be an Under bet for a while.
My best bet: Under 4.5 first five innings (-125 at PROLINE+)
Blue Jays star player prop
Jose Berrios, Over 6.5 strikeouts, +122
It feels like Jose Berrios is the only star player we can focus on for the Blue Jays these days. The right-hander has gotten his 2024 campaign off to a solid start. Berrios opened the season pitching very well against the Rays, and while his stuff wasn’t as dominant against the Astros, he still battled and earned a quality start.
He’ll have the chance to be very successful against a Mariners lineup, that like the Jays, isn’t producing early on. The Mariners are striking out a staggering 31.6% of the time when facing right-handed pitchers this season. While Berrios isn’t a huge strikeout guy, when his stuff is on he can rack them up.
Berrios has also generally been a better pitcher at the Rogers Centre. He had a better ERA, WHIP, and strikeout rate when pitching at home last season.
His strikeout number is a little elevated here at 6.5 because of the Mariners’ propensity for whiffing but at +122 I don’t hate him to go Over that number tonight. Something he did in more than a third of his starts last season.
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Mariners vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this AL matchup as -125 home favorites but the Mariners, who have the better starter have seen the early money and the line has moved to Toronto -120.
- The Mariners have had the edge in this matchup the last couple of seasons, going 10-3 in the last 13 meetings, including sweeping the AL Wild Card round in 2022.
- The total for this matchup hit the board at an even 8 and there are some 8.5s on the board.
- The total just seems much to high for a matchup of teams with solid starting pitching and sub-par lineups.
Trend to know
The Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 66 games at home for 12.34 units and a 16% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Blue Jays
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Mariners vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Monday, April 8, 2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Root Sports Northwest, Sportsnet |
Starting pitchers
Luis Castillo (0-2, 6.75 ERA): Uncharacteristically, Castillo has allowed four earned runs in each of his first two starts this season. Four to the Red Sox and four to the Guardians and has surrendered 16 hits over 10 2/3 innings. That said, Castillo's track record suggests this is just some early-season rust.
Jose Berrios (1-0, 2.25 ERA): Berrios has been on the mound for two of the Blue Jays four wins this season as it looks like his bounce-back season in 2023 was not a fluke. He's mixing his pitches well with most of the damage done against him coming on a couple of home runs.
