The Seattle Mariners will continue their dramatic postseason on Sunday when they begin the ALCS on the road against the Toronto Blue Jays.
My MLB player props and home run analysis are highlighted by Julio Rodriguez and Daulton Varsho going yard.
Find out more in my MLB picks for Sunday, October 12.
Mariners vs Blue Jays Game 1 home run props
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Mariners home run pick
Julio Rodriguez (+400 at BetMGM)
Seattle Mariners center fielder Julio Rodriguez has hit 23 of his 32 homers away from home this season, batting .296 with a .571 slugging percentage in that split.
Meanwhile, the upcoming matchup against Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Kevin Gausman is enticing. In his lone postseason start, Gausman threw 37 four-seamers and 34 splitters, mixing in just four sliders.
Against those two main offerings, Rodriguez has been a menace — owning a .530 xSLG versus the split-finger and a .537 xSLG against four-seamers, ranking first and third on the team, respectively.
While he’s just 4-for-17 against Gausman in his career, one of those hits was a homer, and his .295 xBA and .476 xSLG provide plenty of reason for optimism.
Blue Jays home run pick
Daulton Varsho (+425 at BetMGM)
Daulton Varsho has been red-hot down the stretch, hitting .438 this postseason with a .617 expected slugging to rank third on the team.
He homered twice in Game 2 of the ALDS, and Varsho will now face a favorable matchup against Bryce Miller.
The biggest issue for the slugger has been whiffing on fastballs from righties, but Miller’s four-seamer carries a weak 23% whiff rate, which means we should see the lefty’s 22.6% barrel rate against this pitch play up.
Varsho owns a 50.9% hard-hit rate against four-seamers from right-handers and has hit seven homers on the pitch this year.
How to watch Mariners vs Blue Jays and Game 1 info
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario |
| Date | Sunday, October 12, 2025 |
| First pitch | 8:03 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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