Hunter Brown is one of the best pitchers in the majors and yet Julio Rodriguez has consistently produced against him whenever they’ve faced off.
My Mariners vs. Astros predictions expect that trend to continue, with Rodriguez also set to benefit from playing in a better hitting environment.
We’ll get into why with my September 19 MLB picks.
Mariners vs Astros prediction
Mariners vs Astros best bet: Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 total bases (+115)
Not many hitters enjoy success against Hunter Brown but Julio Rodriguez has found a way. He is 7-21 against Brown and had a pair of hits against him the last time the two faced off.
Brown’s tendency to lean heavily on sinkers is no doubt one of the reasons Rodriguez has fared so well against him.
Rodriguez is a hit machine when facing sinkers. He’s hitting .364 with a near .400 wOBA and sub 10% strikeout rate against the sinker this season. Incredible numbers across the board.
While Rodriguez hasn’t gotten on base as consistently against the fastball (Brown’s other go-to pitch), he has posted a .227 ISO and hit for plenty of power. As good as Brown is, it makes sense Rodriguez is one of the few who has solved him.
Also working in Rodriguez’ favor is the fact this is a road game. Seattle is home to a very pitcher friendly park, which is why Rodriguez has posted much better numbers on the road.
Rodriguez has averaged just 1.5 total bases per game in Seattle, a stark contrast from his 2.4 average when playing on the road.
There’s a lot to like with Rodriguez in this spot. Win or lose, expect him to produce.
Mariners vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Jeremy Peña is much more productive in Houston. His batting average (.355 vs. .259) and OBP (.416 vs. .314) are light years better on home soil and 43 of his 67 runs have been scored at home.
He owns averages above .300 against Bryan Woo’s two top pitches, making him a likely candidate to get on base.
Walker is 4-8 against Woo in the past and continues to hit the ball hard, posting very strong exit velos of late. He has six RBI over his last six and has a good chance of building on that, perhaps by driving in Peña.
Mariners vs Astros SGP
- Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 total bases
- Jeremy Peña Over 0.5 runs
- Christian Walker Over 0.5 RBI
Mariners vs Astros odds
- Moneyline: Seattle -105 | Houston -115
- Run line: Seattle -1.5 (+165) | Houston +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-120)
Mariners vs Astros trend
Julio Rodriguez has recorded multiple total bases in three of his last four games in Houston. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Astros.
How to watch Mariners vs Astros and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Friday, September 19, 2025 |
| First pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | RSNW, SCHN, SN+ |
| Mariners starting pitcher | Bryan Woo (14-7, 3.02 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher | Hunter Brown (12-7, 2.27 ERA) |
Mariners vs Astros latest injuries
Mariners vs Astros weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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