The USA entered the World Baseball Classic as the favorites to win it all, and they’ve shown why through three games — all of which were multi-run victories.
My Italy vs. USA predictions point to another one-sided affair at Dalkin Park tonight.
Let’s take a closer look at my World Baseball Classic best bets for Tuesday, March 10.
Italy vs USA prediction
Italy vs USA best bet: USA -5.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
The USA is 3-0 with a +20 run differential. They've won all three games by multiple runs, posting an average margin of victory above six.
The only close contest came against Mexico, a team that also boasts a +20 run differential, trailing only the Dominican Republic.
Italy doesn't have the same offensive firepower as Mexico. They'll also rely on a bullpen game in this matchup, meaning multiple pitchers need to be sharp rather than just one or two — a tall task against a team averaging 9.66 runs per game.
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Italy vs USA same-game parlay (SGP)
USA -5.5
Under 11.5
Bobby Witt Jr. to record 1+ hits
The USA has allowed an average of three runs per game and will send Nolan McLean to the mound. The young right-hander has high-powered stuff and is difficult to generate hard contact against, which will make it tough for Italy to score runs in bunches.
Team USA can have its typical explosive offensive outing and still cover the spread while keeping this game Under the total.
Bobby Witt Jr. is an elite contact hitter who also possesses high-end speed. With his ability to put the bat on the ball, it’ll be tough for a handful of pitchers to get him out.
Kyle Schwarber star player prop
Kyle Schwarber best bet: 1+ home runs (+220 at DraftKings)
Kyle Schwarber is seeing the ball very well at the WBC. He leads Team USA with five hits while also drawing four walks.
When Schwarber is locked in like this, there’s a good chance the ball leaves the yard if a mistake is made while he’s at the dish.
Italy vs USA opening odds
- Moneyline: Italy +700 | USA -400
- Run line: Italy +5.5 (-115) | USA -5.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: Over 11.5 (-115) | Under 11.5 (-105)
How to watch Italy vs USA and game info
| Location | Dalkin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Tuesday, March 10, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Italy starting pitcher | TBD |
| USA starting pitcher | Nolan McLean |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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