I still have plenty of digging to do to get myself out of this home run hole, but I've hit a dinger here in four straight articles and have gone +10.71 units over those four days.
Let's keep the good times rolling with some four-baggers and MLB player props.
The price on Alec Bohm is nearly 300 points higher than it has been all week, yet today's matchup might be the best one he's seen. Michael Busch is also being priced as a lefty-on-lefty matchup, but the Colorado bullpen will be forced to cover innings today and doesn't have a left-handed option available.
These are my favorite home run props for Wednesday, June 17.
Best MLB home run props today
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Alec Bohm
Michael Busch
Home run pick: Alec Bohm (+940)
Citizens Bank Park ranks as the second-best home run park on the board today, per Ballpark Pal. The Phillies have a home run edge against Sandy Alcantara, who owns the 18th-worst HR/9 rate among MLB starters over the last 30 days and doesn't generate many ground balls, with a 36.3% rate.
Philadelphia should get plenty of balls in the air, and somehow Alec Bohm is still paying a silly +940 to keep raking.
Bohm has been cruising at home in June with a 1.046 OPS. He has three home runs over his last 45 plate appearances and went deep again last night. Those previous home run prices were all shorter than +700.
Where else are you going to find a cleanup hitter at this number?
Bohm also owns the second-best slugging percentage on the team over the last two weeks. He's seen Alcantara 32 times in his career and has hit .344 with an .851 OPS in that respectable sample.
I have this fair price closer to +650.
- Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBC 10, Marlins.TV
Home run pick: Michael Busch (+508)
Here is another great price in a plus-plus matchup against the Rockies, who have a short-leashed starter with home run issues and will eventually turn things over to a depleted bullpen that gets hit harder than any unit in baseball.
Michael Busch will have the wind helping his pull-side power today at Wrigley Field, with 13-mph winds blowing out to right-center. The attractive price is largely due to the lefty-on-lefty matchup, but Colorado starter Sean Sullivan left his last outing due to illness and threw only 49 pitches.
He owns a 5.76 ERA in Triple-A this season and has allowed 10 home runs in just over 54 innings.
He'll eventually hand the ball to a bullpen that has three relievers unavailable, including its only left-handed option. This isn't a true lefty-on-lefty matchup for nine innings, and Busch offers plenty of value for a hitter who owns the third-best slugging percentage on the team over the last two weeks.
The Cubs are hitting multiple dingers today, and Busch's HR price has been +330 and +375 in this series.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network, Rockies.TV
- HR picks: 16-113, -31.26 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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