The Okomoto Train got us on the board yesterday for a good one, and Wednesday's slate has a plethora of +EV home run picks and other great MLB player props.
After double-dipping with the Dodgers in the early afternoon, I'm grabbing Miami Marlins infielder Otto Lopez in a cushy matchup against Baltimore Orioles starter Brandon Young and the suspect bullpen behind him.
These are my favorite home run predictions for Wednesday, May 6.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Kyle Tucker |
+542 |
 Otto Lopez |
+800 |
| Shohei Ohtani |
+280 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +14180 |
Home run pick: Kyle Tucker (+542)
This one checks a lot of boxes, starting with the price. A fair number for a Kyle Tucker HR today is around +440/+450, so there’s plenty of meat on the bone.
Next is the matchup. Lance McCullers Jr. is one of the pitchers to fade today. His BlastContact% and HR/FB rates are among the worst in baseball, and he’s coming off a season-high 99 pitches. For a pitcher who has struggled to stay on the field, that kind of workload could show today.
Additionally, the Houston Astros' bullpen is always one to target and may need to cover innings. Houston relievers are also allowing the second-most HR/9 in baseball.
Finally, there’s a former-team revenge angle in an afternoon game, and Tucker has already taken him deep in just three at-bats.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Space City Home Network, SportsNet LA
Home run pick: Otto Lopez (+800)
I need a piece of the bats vs. the Baltimore pitching today, and I'm landing at Otto Lopez at a giant +800 price.
Brandon Young is my lowest-rated starting pitcher on the slate. He gives up squared-up contact at a high rate, and hitters generate some of their fastest swings against him. Only two other starters have a worse BlastContact% than the Baltimore arm, and his xFIP suggests the damage is sustainable.
Young also won’t go deep, handing things off to a bullpen that gives up home runs and owns the second-worst ERA in baseball over the last two weeks. The Baltimore pen could also be down three or four key arms.
It’s a controlled setting indoors, and Lopez is already 1-for-2 off Young with a home run.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marlins.TV, MASN
Home run pick: Shohei Ohtani (+280)
Let’s double up in Houston vs. McCullers and a struggling bullpen that will be without its closer, Bryan King, who threw 37 pitches yesterday.
Ohtani gets one of the best BlastContact% matchups on the board today and has seen McCullers 23 times. He hasn’t crushed him, but there’s still a lot of information he’s taking into this matchup.
The fair price on this HR is around +250, and it’s tough to pass up the expected value on arguably the best left-handed power hitter in baseball.
McCullers has allowed three home runs over his last 10 innings at home. Historically, he’s been tougher on left-handed hitters, but LHHs are getting the better of him this year, and multiple seasons of injury may be catching up to the right-hander.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Space City Home Network, SportsNet LA
- HR picks: 10-59, -7.41 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Kyle Tucker |
Bet Now +14180 |
| Otto Lopez |
|
| Shohei Ohtani |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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