MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Tuesday, August 19

Aaron Judge is starting to mash balls again, and he'll hammer homer No. 40 out of the park tonight.

Quinn Allen - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Quinn Allen • Betting Analyst
Aug 19, 2025 • 09:28 ET • 4 min read
Aaron Judge New York Yankees MLB
Photo By - Imagn Images. Aaron Judge (99) is congratulated by teammates after driving in a run against the St. Louis Cardinals

We have a fresh plate of games on the table for August 19, meaning a fresh slate of MLB player props to wager on.

My favorite MLB home run picks for today include Aaron Judge, Freddie Freeman, and Dylan Carlson. Whip 'em all together and you have yourself a +11582 parlay.

Best MLB home run props today

  • TEAM Judge (+195)
  • TEAM Freeman (+230)
  • TEAM Carlson (+1100)
  • 💲 +11582 parlay💲

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HR picks for August 19

Aaron Judge (+195 at DraftKings)

Our MLB picks kick off with the league's elite. 

Aaron Judge is starting to find his power again since returning from the IL. He’s now on the doorstep of 40 home runs, as the reigning AL MVP has two long balls in his last five contests.

The New York Yankees begin a series with the Tampa Bay Rays tonight, and they'll face righty Shane Baz. Judge has enjoyed himself against Baz in the past, going 3-for-8 with a home run. He’s also hitting .345 vs. Tampa this season, with one round-tripper. 

While Judge can do damage against any pitcher, he’s shown more power against RHP, slugging 28 bombs. No. 40 could be on the way in the series opener. 

Freddie Freeman (+230 at DraftKings)

The 2025 campaign has been brutal for Freddie Freeman in terms of power. Nonetheless, he’s still left the yard 15 times and continues to produce offensively for the defending World Series champions, hitting .301.

As for tonight’s matchup, the Colorado Rockies send Austin Gomber to the mound. He has an ERA over six and struggles with the long ball, allowing 14 in only 11 starts this year. Freeman has had nothing but success against the southpaw, going 6-for-16 lifetime with two home runs. 

Dylan Carlson (+1100 at DraftKings)

Maybe not the most well-known name for this last pick, but there’s evidence. Dylan Carlson has six home runs on the year, and two of them are in his last three games. The former Cardinal is swinging it very well at the moment, and that's good news for tonight’s clash. 

The Baltimore Orioles face the Boston Red Sox, and it’s Walker Buehler on the bump. He’s had a rough campaign, and Carlson has lit him up in the past, going 3-for-5 with two long balls. Carlson has three multi-hit games in his last five appearances as well. 

Buehler has surrendered 21 home runs this season and allowed two in his most recent start against the Houston Astros.

Today’s HR parlay

Aaron Judge

Freddie Freeman

Dylan Carlson

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Quinn Allen - Covers
Betting Analyst

Quinn Allen is an experienced sports journalist from Vancouver, Canada who fell in love with sports by the time he could walk. He proceeded to play high-level baseball and soccer growing up and eventually played college baseball in the United States.

After his career ended, Quinn received his broadcast journalism degree from BCIT and has since written for many sports publications including ClutchPoints, Gino Hard, and RG, where he plies his trade as a writer and editor.

Quinn's favorite team is Chelsea FC and he'd like to watch a match at Stamford Bridge one day. He loves to bet on NBA player props and encourages others to bet responsibly and not chase losses.

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