Dinger Tuesday and here, and we need a big day in a bad way. Today's looks are heavily factoring in familiarity, which isn't usually priced in for MLB player props.
The Yankees just saw Jacob deGrom, and the right-handed bats in New York have an advantage. Cleveland Guardians rookie Chase DeLauter is still undervalued, and there is only one Toronto bat I want to back indoors today.
These are my favorite home run props for Tuesday, May 5.
- UPDATE: Replaced Soto pick with Kazuma Okamoto, since Mets-Rockies is PPD.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Aaron Judge |
+240 |
 Kazuma Okamoto |
+449 |
 Chase DeLauter |
+960 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +18830 |
Home run pick: Aaron Judge (+240)
The New York Yankees just saw Jacob deGrom one start ago, and that familiarity won’t be fully priced into their HR lines. Add in 17-mph winds blowing out to left, and the conditions only improve. It’s not every day you get +EV on Aaron Judge at +240, but that’s what the Covers projections show.
At first look, he has a split disadvantage vs. deGrom, but the Texas Rangers starter is much tougher on lefties. Right-handed hitters are hitting .324 vs. him compared to .139 vs. LHHs.
The fair price sits closer to +200. Lefty bats like Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+470), Trent Grisham (+390), and Ben Rice (+350) also project as +EV, but I want a right-handed slugger, and the Yankees have the best one projecting for 0.37 HRs today
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES, Rangers Sports Network
Home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+449)
It’s not the best weather slate today for dingers, so let’s go indoors and back one of the hottest bats over the last two weeks in Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Kazuma Okamoto.
The first-year MLB infielder has been the only answer to the Blue Jays’ recent slugging issues, leading the team in every key power metric while launching a half-dozen long balls.
He’s seeing the ball better as well, posting the team’s No. 2 walk rate over that stretch, and now gets a controlled environment.
He just wrapped a three-game home run streak and has been raking over his last 11. The Jays have been snakebitten at the Trop, but maybe that changes with the newcomer. The Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen also owns the second-worst HR/9 in baseball. I’d play this to +410.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet1, Rays.TV
Home run pick: Chase DeLauter (+960)
Cleveland Guardians rookie Chase DeLauter has all six of his home runs vs. right-handed pitching, and today he’s priced at +960 to go yard against Stephen Kolek, who is making his season debut coming off an oblique injury.
The Kansas City Royals starter isn’t known for missing bats, and his fly balls left the yard at a high rate last year at Triple-A. He’s a rotational fill-in and a fringe MLB arm at best.
DeLauter is riding an eight-game hitting streak and has 2+ total bases in four straight, including a homer in his last game. He had the day off yesterday, and while the setting isn’t perfect, these teams combined for three homers at Kauffman last night.
He owns the best BlastContact% on the team over the last seven days, and both his swing speed and SqUpContact% have been trending up.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Guardians.TV, Royals.TV
- HR picks: 9-57, -9.9u units
Today’s HR parlay
| Aaron Judge |
Bet Now +18830 |
| Kazuma Okamoto |
|
| Chase DeLauter |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
