It's Dinger Tuesday, which is a great day to get out of a home-run rut. The current weather might be suppressing some four-baggers, so bettors need to pick their MLB player prop spots today on a full schedule.
The spot I'm picking is in Anaheim, where two of my favorite pitcher fades are starting in Patrick Corbin and Jack Kochanowicz. Both sides should have some good swings today in a ballpark with good hitting conditions and favorable to right-handed hitters.
Below are my favorite MLB home run props for Tuesday, April 21.
Best MLB home run props today
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Mike Trout
Kazuma Okamoto
Mike Trout (+350)
I don’t dip too much into the mid-300s, but getting the most probable Los Angeles Angels home-run hitter 75 points better than fair is tough to pass up against Patrick Corbin. Mike Trout is priced at +350 to go deep for an eighth time this year, which is stronger than most of his recent closing numbers. The matchup sets up well, as Corbin owns one of the highest Blast Contact% rates among starters.
Corbin’s leash has been extended and could push 90+ pitches, but even if he exits early, the Toronto Blue Jays bullpen may be without multiple high-leverage arms. Right-handed hitters are batting around .300 against Corbin since 2024, and the setting helps with 10-mph winds blowing out to center. Angel Stadium also has the lowest average fence height in baseball.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Network West, SN1
Kazuma Okamoto (+790)
Let’s stay in Anaheim, as Jack Kochanowicz is another arm to target on Dinger Tuesday.
His command has been poor this year (15 walks in 23+ innings), and he also struggles to keep the ball in the park, allowing plenty of hard contact with the 14th-worst Blast Contact% since last season. He does generate ground balls, but when hitters elevate, they often leave the yard — he had the highest HR/FB rate among MLB starters last year.
Let’s back a name that has already cashed for us this season in Kazuma Okamoto, who brings strong home run metrics, especially in Blast Contact% and Ideal Attack Angle%.
There’s some swing-and-miss, but the matchup is elite, and the price is right, with a breakeven around +650. It’s also a Top-10 park for right-handed power, and the wind blowing out only helps.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Network West, SN1
- HR picks: 5-35, -4.4 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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