Let’s run the table on a short slate with action throughout the day, starting in the afternoon. There are a few clear pitcher fades and favorable winds blowing out, making MLB player props ripe for the taking.
After initially targeting Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Bobby Witt Jr. on the matinee slate, I'm capping things off with Miami Marlins infielder Otto Lopez in a favorable matchup against a flailing Orioles pitching staff.
Here are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Thursday, May 7.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Jazz Chisholm Jr. |
+760 |
 Bobby Witt Jr. |
+452 |
 Otto Lopez |
+670 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +29283 |
Home run pick: Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+760)
I want a left-handed New York Yankees bat this afternoon with 9-mph winds blowing out to right field at Yankee Stadium. MacKenzie Gore is a lefty, but left-handed hitters are actually taking him deep at a higher rate than righties. He also carries the third-highest HR/FB rate among all starters on today’s slate.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. has already taken Gore deep in a small nine-at-bat sample. He homered Tuesday, and three of his 11 hits over the last 12 games have left the yard. His bat-tracking metrics are checking every box as well, ranking among the top Yankee hitters in BlastContact% while posting strong marks in swing speed, SqUpContact%, and Ideal Attack Angle.
There’s also a useful stat that measures attack direction — the horizontal angle the ball comes off the bat, essentially tracking pull vs. late contact — and Chisholm’s +8-degree mark points to heavy pull-side barrel contact that plays perfectly with the short porch and the wind.
The fair price for this +EV homer is around +580.
- Time: 12:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES, Rangers Sports Network
Home run pick: Bobby Witt Jr. (+452)
The wind is howling out to center at Kauffman Stadium at 15 mph, and Slade Cecconi is a great pitcher fade. The Cleveland Guardians starter has allowed five HRs over the last three starts and a whopping 26 hits over those 16 innings. His Ks are down, and the walks are up, leading to an increase in HR/9.
Bobby Witt Jr's fair price to go yard this afternoon is around +390. It's tough to go wrong with any of the big Kansas City bats today with this setting and matchup.
This is also a great spot to stack some HRRBI for the Royals, and there could be runs as KC starter Seth Lugo is coming off a season-high 103 pitches, and there might be three arms unavailable in the Royals' bullpen.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Royals.TV, Guardians.TV
Home run pick: Otto Lopez (+670)
The Miami Marlins have a circled matchup today against lefty Cade Povich and an overworked Baltimore Orioles bullpen. I have Povich rated as a Bottom-5 starter on the slate, and his spot with the Orioles could disappear once Trevor Rogers returns.
Povich lasted just 12 outs in his last start while allowing two home runs, and if he can’t cover innings again, Baltimore will have to lean on a bullpen that may be without three arms, including closer Rico Garcia. That entire relief group owns a 7.84 ERA over the last two weeks, and 47 innings is more than enough sample size to take seriously.
This Baltimore bullpen is bad.
I’m going back to Otto Lopez, who sat yesterday but will likely lead off against the southpaw. He’s been crushing lefties this year with a 1.004 OPS.
Lopez has a hit in nine straight games with five extra-base hits during that stretch and is playing some of his best baseball of the season with 20-HR potential. He could get five plate appearances today and multiple cracks at that Baltimore bullpen.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, Marlins.TV
- HR picks: 10-61, -9.41 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. |
Bet Now +29283 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. |
|
| Otto Lopez |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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