There is a full 15-game MLB slate on Sunday, with plenty of MLB player props to choose from.
I have compiled my three best home run picks for July 6, featuring a pair of players on the Chicago Cubs.
Best MLB home run props today
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Carroll (+300) -
Tucker (+400) - Happ (+450)
- 💲 +9110 parlay💲
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HR picks for July 6
Corbin Carroll to hit a home run (+300 at DraftKings)
The afternoon portion of Sunday’s MLB slate features the Arizona Diamondbacks hosting the Kansas City Royals. Arizona’s Corbin Carroll just returned from a wrist injury and is likely to return to form sooner rather than later.
One of the most underappreciated players in baseball, Carroll’s analytics this season are spectacular. He ranks in the 91st percentile or higher in expected slugging percentage (xSLG), average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
That success is likely to continue against right-hander Michael Lorenzen, a pitcher Carroll has previously homered against. Lorenzen has struggled this season and ranks in the bottom half of the league in expected ERA (xERA), average exit velocity, and barrel rate.
Kyle Tucker to hit a home run (+400 at DraftKings)
Later in the evening, the Chicago Cubs host the St. Louis Cardinals on ESPN. Right-hander Erick Fedde takes the mound for St. Louis and profiles as a strong fade candidate.
Through 17 starts this season, Fedde is 3-8 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. His underlying metrics are even worse as he owns a 5.42 xERA and ranks in the sixth percentile in expected batting average (xBA), 18th percentile in average exit velocity, and 26th percentile in hard-hit rate.
Chicago’s Kyle Tucker should have no issue capitalizing on this matchup. In five plate appearances against Fedde, Tucker boasts a 1.400 slugging percentage and one home run.
Ian Happ to hit a home run (+450 at DraftKings)
Another Cubs hitter to target in this matchup is Ian Happ. Like Tucker, Happ has previously homered off Fedde.
It’s also worth noting that Fedde enters this matchup in particularly poor form. He’s surrendered seven runs in each of his past two starts, allowing a combined four home runs across those outings.
Over those two games, Fedde has posted a 14.54 ERA and 2.65 WHIP. The first of those starts came against Chicago, a game in which both Tucker and Happ went deep.
Today’s HR parlay
Corbin Carroll to hit a home run
Kyle Tucker to hit a home run
Ian Happ to hit a home run
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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