MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Monday, September 15

Aaron Judge finds himself on one of his patented heaters, and that spells bad news for the Minnesota Twins tonight.

Quinn Allen - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Quinn Allen • Betting Analyst
Sep 15, 2025 • 12:34 ET • 4 min read
New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) follows through on a solo home run against the Detroit Tigers during the first inning at Yankee Stadium.
Photo By - Imagn Images. New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) follows through on a solo home run against the Detroit Tigers during the first inning at Yankee Stadium.

Another week of big league action begins as we approach the end of the regular season. 

My MLB player props analysis for September 15 — focusing on home run hitters — highlights Mookie Betts, Yainer Diaz, and Aaron Judge. 

Best MLB home run props today

  • TEAM Betts (+472)
  • TEAM Diaz (+526)
  • TEAM Judge (+202)
  • 💲 +10713 parlay💲

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HR Prop #1: Mookie Betts

+472 at DraftKings

Mookie Betts is red hot right now, hitting nearly .500 across the last week with two home runs. Overall, the veteran has smacked 18 round-trippers. That’s not a huge number, but Betts is very capable of going deep at any given moment. 

He comes into Monday’s matchup with momentum. Betts just collected five hits across the last two games, and he’ll face Ranger Suarez of the Philadelphia Phillies this evening. He’s lit up the lefty in the past, going 4-for-9 with a pair of long balls. 

Suarez has allowed just 10 home runs in 23 starts this season, but nine of them have come off the bats of right-handed hitters. 

HR Prop #2: Yanier Diaz

+526 at DraftKings

Yanier Diaz and the Houston Astros begin a big matchup with the Texas Rangers tonight, which always brings fireworks. The catcher is having a respectable campaign, hitting .259 with 19 home runs. He’s left the yard once in his last four games, and owns a .318 average in September. 

Jack Leiter faces the Astros, and Diaz is 2-for-6 lifetime against him with a home run. The majority of his power damage has come against righties, cracking 14 bombs. Leiter has given up seven round-trippers to right-handed batters. 

Diaz is also confident right now. He’s got three multi-hit games in his last five appearances and will smack HR No. 20 tonight. 

HR Prop #3: Aaron Judge

+202 at DraftKings

Save the best for last, right? Aaron Judge is really starting to heat up, and that’s good news for the New York Yankees. The reigning AL MVP has now launched 48 home runs, and it’s almost a foregone conclusion he’ll hit the No. 50 mark sooner rather than later.

The slugger made his presence felt in the series finale against the Boston Red Sox on Sunday, taking Garrett Crochet deep to right-center at Fenway Park. 

Judge has left the yard three times in his last four contests, including a two-homer game last Thursday against the Detroit Tigers. He’s also finished with two hits in back-to-back games. Judge is swinging it extremely well as the playoffs quickly approach. 

Today’s HR parlay

Mookie Betts

Yanier Diaz

Aaron Judge

Today’s most popular HR bets

  1. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
  2. Aaron Judge, Yankees
  3. Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees

Betting info courtesy of DraftKings

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Quinn Allen - Covers
Betting Analyst

Quinn Allen is an experienced sports journalist from Vancouver, Canada who fell in love with sports by the time he could walk. He proceeded to play high-level baseball and soccer growing up and eventually played college baseball in the United States.

After his career ended, Quinn received his broadcast journalism degree from BCIT and has since written for many sports publications including ClutchPoints, Gino Hard, and RG, where he plies his trade as a writer and editor.

Quinn's favorite team is Chelsea FC and he'd like to watch a match at Stamford Bridge one day. He loves to bet on NBA player props and encourages others to bet responsibly and not chase losses.

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