A brand new week is here! Let's kick it off with three of my favorite home run props and predictions for tonight's MLB slate.
In addition to my two early selections, Munetaka Murakami and Kyle Schwarber, I'm going back to the well with NL MVP favorite Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Here are my favorite MLB picks for Monday, Aug. 24.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Munetaka Murakami |
+325 |
 Kyle Schwarber |
+307 |
 Pete Crow-Armstrong |
+365 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +7162 |
Home run pick: Munetaka Murakami (+325)
"This guy writes up Munetaka Murakami every single day!"
Correct.
The No. 1 hitter on Batters-Box today is the South Side slugger, and he draws a heavy fly-ball pitcher in Texas Rangers right-hander Kumar Rocker, who has struggled against left-handed hitters all season long.
The last 60 left-handed hitters Rocker has faced have generated a 71.1% elevation rate, while owning a .367 xBA, .625 xSLG, and .383 xwOBA against him.
The Chicago White Sox rookie has the team's highest barrel rate over the last 10 games, while posting a .263 ISO and .457 xSLG.
Through 56 elite ratings this season, he has left the yard nearly 34% of the time. He also covers almost 80% of Rocker’s pitch mix.
Take this down to +300.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, RSN
Home run pick: Kyle Schwarber (+307)
Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber is coming off a monster weekend at the dish, looking to keep that momentum rolling into the new week.
Schwarber draws Seattle Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert, who has allowed the last 30 left-handed hitters he has faced to produce a 43% line-drive rate, while owning a .331 xBA and .476 xSLG.
Schwarber owns a .549 xSLG, .302 ISO, 45.5% hard-hit rate, and 18.2% barrel rate over his last 10 games. Across his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, the big fella is generating a 52.4% hard-hit rate and 28.6% barrel rate.
Hard to pass up this price for KYLE SCHWARBER to go yard while he is on this type of heater.
Play to +275.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SEAM, NBCSP
Home run pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+365)
Yup, we are going right back to the man who cashed us out yesterday in the Cubs vs. Mariners preview. The future 2026 NL MVP, Mr. Pete Crow-Armstrong, at +365 is a delicious price for the Chicago Cubs slugger to go yard in back-to-back games.
Crow-Armstrong draws Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly, who has been pretty awful against lefties this season. The last 30 left-handed hitters he has faced are generating a 50% hard-hit rate, 13.6% barrel rate, and 63.6% elevation rate, all while owning a .464 xBA, .886 xSLG, and .563 xwOBA.
The Cubs slugger has an elite rating on Batters-Box. In 31 elite-rated games this season, Crow-Armstrong has left the yard in nearly 30%. Over his last 10 games, the 24-year-old owns a .732 SLG, .488 ISO, sub-20% ground-ball rate, and a 13% barrel rate.
At this price, the chance for him to go back-to-back games with a nuke is well worth the risk. Take this down to +325.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MARQ, ARID
- HR picks: 108-378, +16.5 units
Today’s HR combo
| Munetaka Murakami |
Trade Now +7162 |
| Kyle Schwarber |
|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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