We finished off the week in the black, and with the good weather coming, this is the week to flip those early-season losses to profit, and we need four units this week to do so. It's home run and MLB player props all week, right here.
Kazuma Okamoto just took Drew Rasmussen deep last week, and with the way he's swinging it over the last 14 days, he has to be on the card at today's price.
We're adding him to Julio Rodriguez and Pete Alonso in my favorite home run props and MLB picks for Monday, May 11.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Julio Rodriguez |
+520 |
 Pete Alonso |
+490 |
 Kazuma Okamoto |
+410 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +11808 |
Home run pick: Julio Rodriguez (+520)
I will fade the Houston Astros every chance I get. Their starters are weak, and the bullpen is near the bottom of the barrel. Today, they’re turning to Peter Lambert, who is pitching above expectations and coming off a season-high 104 pitches. The quality could dip today, and right-handed hitters have done most of the damage against him.
Julio Rodríguez will not close at +520 to homer. This number could fall to +400, and I’d still bet it. The right-handed slugger is slashing .348/.375/.717 over his last 11 games with four home runs and five more extra-base hits. His production away from home has also stood out.
If he doesn’t get to Lambert early, the Houston bullpen still ranks among the worst in home runs allowed and has been used heavily over the last two weeks.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Space City Home Network, Mariners.TV
Home run pick: Pete Alonso (+490)
The Polar Bear has treated us well this season, and today vs. New York Yankees southpaw Ryan Weathers is another great spot to smash the Dinger button on the Baltimore Orioles slugger. Weathers missed his last start due to an illness and ranks in the bottom 40 among all MLB starters in both BlastCont% and HR/FB rate.
There is also a familiarity factor here, as Weathers' last start came against the Orioles, who stacked four runs on him with Pete Alonso taking him deep on a 114-mph laser. The fair price for this four-bagger is around +400, per the projections at Covers.
- Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, YES
Home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+410)
Kazuma Okamoto is sporting a tidy 1.254 OPS over the last 10 days with five home runs and seven extra-base hits. One of those bombs came against the Tampa Bay Rays and Drew Rasmussen last Tuesday. The Tampa Bay righty owns one of the worst HR/FB rates among MLB starters, ranking 29th worst.
Okamoto is squaring everything up right now, and with the Toronto Blue Jays’ second-fastest swing behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr., he’s doing real damage.
The rookie owns the 17th-best SqUpCon% in baseball over the last two weeks and owns the fastest swing among the Top 35 hitters in that metric. All of his Over props are live today, and the familiarity angle works in his favor.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rays.TV, Sportsnet 1
- HR picks: 12-65, -3.14 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Julio Rodriguez |
Bet Now +11808 |
| Pete Alonso |
|
| Kazuma Okamoto |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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