The weather has cooled across the board, making +EV home runs harder to find—but targeting the weakest starters and focusing on indoor four-baggers remains the smartest strategy on today’s MLB player props board.
German Márquez could be out before the fourth inning, giving Oneil Cruz a strong shot at his fifth long ball of the season. Meanwhile, in the Dodgers–Blue Jays World Series rematch, Toronto outfielder George Springer finds himself in an ideal spot to ignite his team’s offense.
These are my favorite home run props and MLB picks for Monday, April 6.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Oneil Cruz |
+380 |
 Andy Pages |
+520 |
 George Springer |
+500 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +16107 |
Oneil Cruz (+380)
I’m willing to dip below +400 to fade Germán Márquez, who projects as the weakest starter on the slate and is expected to allow the most runs by a wide margin. He lasted just nine outs in his last start, giving up eight hits and two homers, and continues to profile as an extreme fly-ball pitcher with poor Pull Air% metrics over the past couple of seasons.
While conditions are cold in most parks, PNC Park at least has 14 mph winds blowing out to center, boosting the power environment. Oneil Cruz should see plenty of opportunities hitting leadoff, with a strong chance at five plate appearances. He went deep for his fourth home run yesterday and is looking like his best self, batting .314/.368/.657, and three of his long balls have come off right-handers.
And if Marquez gives way to a left-handed reliever, Cruz has actually hit southpaws well (albeit in a small sample) this season, boasting a 2.091 OPS in that split.
Cruz also ranks among the league leaders in barrels per plate appearance and average exit velocity, giving him legitimate Top-10 home run upside if this form continues.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, Padres.TV
Andy Pages (+540)
Rogers Centre is one of the better power environments on today’s slate, ranking among the top HR parks by THE BAT. With the Los Angeles Dodgers in town — a lineup leading MLB in home runs per game (1.78) — this is a strong spot to target the HR market.
Max Scherzer is still generating plenty of fly balls, and the Toronto Blue Jays bullpen has been heavily taxed, ranking near the top of the league in innings pitched. The Dodgers also bring familiarity against both Scherzer and this bullpen.
Andy Pages stands out as a value option, likely hitting seventh and entered Sunday on a five-game multi-hit streak. He’s slugging .794 and just went 7-for-13 with 14 total bases and two home runs in a series in Washington.
While bigger names will draw attention, the price is the difference. Rather than laying a short number on Shohei Ohtani, Pages at +450 or better is the preferred play in this matchup.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet LA, Sportsnet
George Springer (+500)
With 50-degree temperatures across the league, staying indoors at Rogers Centre is a smart way to target power. George Springer leading off at +500 stands out, with a fair price closer to +430 and a strong chance at five plate appearances.
This is the most favorable matchup of the series for the Blue Jays, as they face lefty Justin Wrobleski. He’s a regression candidate after overperforming out of the bullpen last year and allowed three runs over four innings in his season debut. With this being a series opener, he could be stretched further, potentially giving Toronto more opportunities early.
Springer’s profile supports the play — he owns one of the top fly-ball rates on the team, and while a .174 BABIP suggests some bad luck, he’s still accounted for 20% of the team’s home runs. Back at home in a controlled hitting environment, this is a strong bounce-back spot at a great number.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet LA, Sportsnet
- HR picks: 1-8, -2.8 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Oneil Cruz |
Bet Now +16107 |
| Andy Pages |
|
| George Springer |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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