The weather has cooled down across the board, so finding +EV dingers isn't as easy, but fading the worst starter on the slate and betting on indoor four-baggers is the best recipe for success today when looking at the MLB player props board.
German Marquez might not see the fourth inning, and Oneil Cruz has a good chance to hit his fifth long ball of the campaign. Meanwhile, the Dodgers and Andy Pages are ready to hit some nukes indoors vs. the down-and-out Blue Jays.
These are my favorite home run props and MLB picks for Monday, April 6.
Best MLB home run props today
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Oneil Cruz
Andy Pages
Oneil Cruz (+380)
I’m willing to dip below +400 to fade Germán Márquez, who projects as the weakest starter on the slate and is expected to allow the most runs by a wide margin. He lasted just nine outs in his last start, giving up eight hits and two homers, and continues to profile as an extreme fly-ball pitcher with poor Pull Air% metrics over the past couple of seasons.
While conditions are cold in most parks, PNC Park at least has 14 mph winds blowing out to center, boosting the power environment. Oneil Cruz should see plenty of opportunities hitting leadoff, with a strong chance at five plate appearances. He went deep for his fourth home run yesterday and is looking like his best self, batting .314/.368/.657, and three of his long balls have come off right-handers.
And if Marquez gives way to a left-handed reliever, Cruz has actually hit southpaws well (albeit in a small sample) this season, boasting a 2.091 OPS in that split.
Cruz also ranks among the league leaders in barrels per plate appearance and average exit velocity, giving him legitimate Top-10 home run upside if this form continues.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet Pittsburgh, Padres.TV
Andy Pages (+540)
Rogers Centre is one of the better power environments on today’s slate, ranking among the top HR parks by THE BAT. With the Los Angeles Dodgers in town — a lineup leading MLB in home runs per game (1.78) — this is a strong spot to target the HR market.
Max Scherzer is still generating plenty of fly balls, and the Toronto Blue Jays bullpen has been heavily taxed, ranking near the top of the league in innings pitched. The Dodgers also bring familiarity against both Scherzer and this bullpen.
Andy Pages stands out as a value option, likely hitting seventh and entered Sunday on a five-game multi-hit streak. He’s slugging .794 and just went 7-for-13 with 14 total bases and two home runs in a series in Washington.
While bigger names will draw attention, the price is the difference. Rather than laying a short number on Shohei Ohtani, Pages at +450 or better is the preferred play in this matchup.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet, SportsNet LA
- HR picks: 1-8, -2.8 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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