It was a welcome winning day on the dinger market yesterday, and I’m asking the four-bag gods for some Friday home run luck and a little more love from the MLB player props.
I don’t think bettors put enough value into attacking bad bullpens, especially when paired with short-leashed starters, and that’s the approach I’m taking today.
See why Adley Rutschman is featured in my favorite home run props for Friday, May 8.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Sal Stewart |
+420 |
 Brent Rooker |
+475 |
 Adley Rutschman |
+575 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +15932 |
Home run pick: Sal Stewart (+420)
This is shaping up to be a high-scoring affair. The wind is blowing out at Great American Ball Park, both bullpens have ERAs north of 7.00 over the last two weeks, and neither starter is likely to go deep.
The Cincinnati Reds should be able to hit around Mike Burrows, who owns a Bottom-30 HR/FB rate among MLB starters. There aren’t many great prices on the board, but getting Sal Stewart at +380 or better projects as +EV.
He homered yesterday at Wrigley, is up to 10 on the season, and the bat-tracking numbers are strong. Nothing elite, but his fast swing percentage, square-up percentage, and ideal attack angle all grade out positively.
Cincinnati will also get a crack at a Houston Astros bullpen that owns the second-worst HR/9 among MLB relief corps over the last week.
The Reds have the worst mark themselves. This game could turn into a shootout.
- Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Reds.TV, Space City Home Network
Home run pick: Brent Rooker (+475)
Someone finally blew the dust off Brent Rooker this month. Entering May, he was slugging just .288, but he’s found his swing with a .600 SLG over his last six games while hitting .320 with two home runs.
It comes at the perfect time for bettors because his +475 price to go deep is too long in a matchup against Kyle Bradish, who has been prone to the long ball and rarely works deep into games. That should force Baltimore to lean on a bullpen that owns the fourth-worst ERA over the last two weeks while also logging the second-most innings during that stretch.
Rooker’s fair price today is around +410, and it’s tough to find an Athletics bat above +380 that’s worth backing on this Friday slate.
He may be the player who has sold me the most over the last two seasons, but the streaky slugger is a buy right now, and both the matchup and setting work in his favor.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, NBCSCA
Home run pick: Adley Rutschman (+575)
It’s a good time to buy into Adley Rutschman. He’s been on a tear lately with a .985 OPS since returning to the lineup 12 games ago, and he owns a 1.285 OPS at home during that stretch with four home runs.
Jacob Lopez is firmly on the fade list after making his first start following a bullpen move and allowing six runs and two home runs over 96 pitches against a light-hitting Cleveland lineup. Right-handed hitters have been punishing him, and Rutschman has done a lot of his damage batting right-handed this season.
It’s also an Athletics bullpen that ranks in the bottom five in baseball in HR/9 and lacks a defined closer. This sets up as a strong game environment for runs, and while I do want Pete Alonso exposure, I’m not paying +350 when a red-hot, matchup-friendly Rutschman is sitting at +575.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, NBCSCA
- HR picks: 11-63,-6.89 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Sal Stewart |
Bet Now +15932 |
| Brent Rooker |
|
| Adley Rutschman |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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