Home Run Props and Odds This Weekend: BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot Picks

BetMGM's Grand Slam Jackpot gives you a chance to cash in big time on big flies — all weekend long. We give our two favorite picks to use for tonight's promotion while previewing some possible players to target on Saturday and Sunday.

Eric Rosales - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Eric Rosales • Betting Analyst
Jun 21, 2024 • 10:28 ET
Daulton Varsho Vlad Guerrero Jr. Toronto Blue Jays MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

There's no better way to spend your weekend of MLB betting than cheering for home run props, and BetMGM's Grand Slam Jackpot has made hitting your dinger bets potentially even more profitable.

Every Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, if your first bet (of $10 or more) on a player to hit a home run hits a grand slam that day... you win a share of a $50,000 bonus bet jackpot — in addition to BetMGM having among the best MLB player prop odds for homers in the industry.

There's some strategy involved for maximizing your chances of correctly betting a grand salami, so to prep you for each weekend of action I'll break down my best picks for Friday... along with the best pitchers/players to target, ahead of Saturday and Sunday play.

BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot picks for tonight

A's Zack Gelof (+775 at BetMGM)

What a series for Oakland A's second baseman Zack Gelof. He tagged KC’s Seth Lugo on Thursday for a two-run jack, their only runs in an eventual 3-2 loss. 

That gives Gelof homers in all three games in this series, upping his total to eight on the season.

Now, he steps to the plate against the Minnesota Twins, a team that’s surrendered the fourth-most home runs in baseball this season.

Gelof will face righty Chris Paddack, who enters with a hefty 5.25 ERA and a recent penchant for serving up the long ball. He’s surrendered 13 total, tied for the fourth-most in the bigs.

In his last outing against these same A’s, he was chased after just 2 1/3 innings, giving up five runs and a pair of dingers.

Paddack has been taken yard in six of his last eight starts and five of Gelof’s eight jacks have been off right-handers.

Orioles Adley Rutschman (+450 at BetMGM)

It's borderline criminal for the Houston Astros to throw righty Jake Bloss out for his big league debut against the Baltimore Orioles.

Baltimore is coming off an absolute 17-5 demolition of the New York Yankees — the team with the best record in baseball, no less.

The Orioles rang up three more homers Thursday, upping their major-league-best total to 119.

There’s a bevy of hitmen to pick on this roster, but we’ll stick with the best grand slam possibility, catcher Adley Rutschman.

Rutschman’s two grand slams on the year are tied for the major-league lead with a pack of seven, and the O’s are second in MLB with four salamis on the season.

BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot

BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot - Saturday preview

Randy's not dandy

San Diego Padres hurler Randy Vasquez has given up seven home runs across his last five outings.

In his nine starts for the Padres so far this year, he has kept the ball inside the park a total of one time.

Vasquez is an equal opportunist when serving up dingers: righties and lefties have taken him yard five times apiece, though lefties are hitting him at a more potent .465 clip.

Possible picks: Willy Adames and Christian Yelich

Loot to plunder

The Tampa Bay Rays have won six of Zach Elfin’s last eight starts, despite the righty giving up long balls in six of those games.

He served up a pair to the Braves in his last game, and he’s allowed at least one home run in each of his three interleague starts this season.

Righties are hitting him hard, batting .297 with nine of his 11 home runs allowed on the season.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are tied with the Reds for the second-most grand slams this season with four.

Possible picks: Oneil Cruz and Jack Suwinski

BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot - Sunday preview

Fade Slade

Slade Cecconi pitched his outlier game of the season last time out, throwing six innings of three-hit ball in a 5-0 win over the Washington Nationals.

The Arizona Diamondbacks hurler's bloated 5.90 ERA should reveal itself again Sunday when he pitches against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank, a park that’s served up the seventh-most homers this season.

Before Cecconi’s gem, he had gone seven straight games with at least one long ball allowed, a total of 11 over that span.

Philadelphia has hit the seventh-most home runs on the year and owns the seventh-best slugging percentage. There’s potential for plenty of fireworks here.

Possible picks: Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber

Off Guardian

Let’s wrap with the pitcher sitting all alone with the second most home runs surrendered this season with 15.

Cleveland Guardians righty Triston McKenzie has given up three multi-homer games in three of his last five starts and has been taken deep at least once in seven of his last nine outings.

The Guardians may be tied for the third-fewest home runs hit out of their park, but McKenzie stands out at Progressive, having served up 11 long balls in 43 innings of work.

It’s tempting enough that even the Toronto Blue Jays — a team that’s hit the second-fewest home runs in the majors with 60 — are a decent bet to take him yard.

Despite the low number, they do have three grand slams on the year.

Possible picks: Daulton Varsho and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 

Key considerations for betting on a grand slam

Grand slams aren't frequent, but if you want to maximize your chance of your bet being the biggest of big flies, here are some statistics to consider:

  • From the start of the 2022 season through May 2024, the highest percentage of all plate appearances with the bases loaded was the No. 6 spot (13.48%), followed by the No. 5 hitter (12.84%). Seventh in the order is third at 11.66%, just barely ahead of the cleanup spot (10.84%).
  • The No. 3 spot — traditionally a team's best hitter — unsurprisingly has the best home run rate with the bases loaded (3.76%, just ahead of Nos. 2, 4, and 1), but the three-hole actually has the third-fewest PAs with the bases loaded in that span — while the bottom of the order (Nos. 8/9) have the two worst HR rates of all lineup spots.
  • The only spots with fewer grand slam chances than No. 3? That would be the leadoff hitter and No. 2 spot, both of which had less than 10% of all bases-loaded PAs.

What's the takeaway? The No. 3 hitter is often your best chance of a home run, but betting on hitters in the 4-7 spot in the order is likely your best shot of getting an at-bat with the bases loaded.

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