The New York Mets (56%) are favored to put their three-game losing streak to an end against the Houston Astros.
With a clear pitching advantage stemming from Nolan McLean taking the mound, I see value on the home side with my Astros vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, Aug. 29.
Who will win Astros vs Mets today: Mets moneyline (57%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
The Houston Astros are not doing much damage at the plate, especially against righties. They sit 29th in xwOBA over their last 20 games.
Nolan McLean has feasted on cold offenses all season long. His ERA sits at just 1.40 over 12 starts vs. opponents who ranked Bottom-10 in xwOBA the 20 games prior to squaring off.
We should expect a quality start here, which puts the New York Mets in a great spot to get a win. They’re quietly ninth in xwOBA vs. RHP the past three weeks, and Cristian Javier is very hittable.
Back New York to 58%.
COVERS INTEL: McLean ranks in the 98th percentile in Fastball Run Value, and should cause problems for a Houston offense hitting .238 against RH fastballs the past 30 games.
Astros vs Mets Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (47%)
McLean has allowed two runs or fewer in all 12 starts against teams who ranked Bottom-10 in xwOBA their last 20 games, and gave up 0.38 HR/9 along the way.
He is going to make life difficult on an Astros lineup owning the seventh-highest soft contact rate against right-handed pitching this month.
Both teams have Top-10 bullpens by wOBA in August so we shouldn’t expect much fireworks late.
If Javier avoids an early blow-up, there’s a clean path to an Under.
Play to 48%.
Astros vs Mets home run prediction: Yordan Alvarez (23%)
Yordan Alvarez owns otherworldly numbers against McLean’s pitch mix. He will primarily see sinkers, fastballs, and curveballs, and that sets up very well for the AL MVP favorite.
Alvarez has posted a .389 ISO, 18.1% barrel rate, and 60.9% hard-hit rate when facing those pitches.
His 70% hard hit rate over the last 25 at-bats against that mix signals another hot stretch could be looming.
Play to 26%.
- ML/RL bets: 91-85, -13.25 units
- Over/Under bets: 89-81-6, -3.80 units
Astros vs Mets weather
With weather in the mid 70s and soft winds, the conditions are still more favorable for the pitchers.
Astros vs Mets odds
- Moneyline: Astros 45% | Mets 56%
- Run line: Astros 64% | Mets 38%
- Over/Under: Over 55% | Under 46%
Astros vs Mets trend
New York has hit the Under in 16 of its last 22 home games (+10.65 units, 45% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Mets.
How to watch Astros vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date | Saturday, Aug. 29, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN Unlimited |
| Astros starting pitcher | Cristian Javier (1-4, 6.47 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Nolan McLean (9-8, 3.21 ERA) |
Astros vs Mets latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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