I've targeted some well-known sluggers for today's action in my home run props.
Jackson Merrill starts things off, followed by Randy Arozarena.
Read more in my MLB player props for Saturday, Aug. 29.
MLB home run props for today
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Jackson Merrill
Randy Arozarena
Home run prediction: Jackson Merrill (14%)
Jackson Merrill brings real home run appeal given his current power form. The San Diego Padres outfielder owns a massive .522 ISO over his last six games, going deep three times during that span.
Merrill is also getting the ball in the air consistently, with 57.9% of his recent contact coming as fly balls. That profile plays well against Nick Martinez, who owns a 47.9% fly-ball rate at home this season.
Tampa Bay’s bullpen has limited hard contact lately, but it has still allowed a 40.3% fly-ball rate over the last week, giving Merrill another path to leave the yard.
Play to 20%.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Peacock
Home run prediction: Randy Arozarena (11%)
Randy Arozarena is worth a look as a power value against Jose Soriano and the Toronto Blue Jays bullpen.
The Seattle Mariners outfielder has gone deep seven times in August, and his power has traveled, with 10 of his homers against right-handed pitching coming away from home. He has a .474 ISO in the last week and three bombs in his last six contests as well.
Soriano is not a perfect pitcher to target because he keeps the ball on the ground, but he still allows a 31.3% fly-ball rate to right-handed bats, meaning one mistake can matter.
If Arozarena gets into Toronto’s bullpen late, his recent power surge gives him another path to leave the yard. Jays relievers have combined for a 5.51 FIP over the last week while giving up 1.85 HR/9.
Play to 15%.
- Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet, Mariners.TV
- HR picks: 18-91, -7.89 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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