I've targeted some well-known sluggers for today's action in my home run props.
Jackson Merrill starts things off, followed by Randy Arozarena and Bryce Harper.
Read more in my MLB player props for Saturday, Aug. 29.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
MLB home run props for today
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Player to hit a HR | Chance |
|---|---|
 Jackson Merrill |
14% |
 Randy Arozarena |
13% |
 Bryce Harper |
20% |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | 25974x |
Home run prediction: Jackson Merrill (14%)
Jackson Merrill brings real home run appeal given his current power form. The San Diego Padres outfielder owns a massive .522 ISO over his last six games, going deep three times during that span.
Merrill is also getting the ball in the air consistently, with 57.9% of his recent contact coming as fly balls. That profile plays well against Nick Martinez, who owns a 47.9% fly-ball rate at home this season.
Tampa Bay’s bullpen has limited hard contact lately, but it has still allowed a 40.3% fly-ball rate over the last week, giving Merrill another path to leave the yard.
Play to 20%.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Peacock
Home run prediction: Randy Arozarena (13%)
Randy Arozarena is worth a look as a power value against Jose Soriano and the Toronto Blue Jays bullpen.
The Seattle Mariners outfielder has gone deep seven times in August, and his power has traveled, with 10 of his homers against right-handed pitching coming away from home. He has a .474 ISO in the last week and three bombs in his last six contests as well.
Soriano is not a perfect pitcher to target because he keeps the ball on the ground, but he still allows a 31.3% fly-ball rate to right-handed bats, meaning one mistake can matter.
If Arozarena gets into Toronto’s bullpen late, his recent power surge gives him another path to leave the yard. Jays relievers have combined for a 5.51 FIP over the last week while giving up 1.85 HR/9.
Play to 15%.
- Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet, Mariners.TV
Home run prediction: Bryce Harper (20%)
Bryce Harper is in excellent power form heading into this matchup with Ryan Johnson. The Philadelphia Phillies slugger has gone deep twice over his last six games while posting a massive .391 ISO and .826 SLG during that span.
The contact quality backs it up, too. Harper owns a 50% hard-hit rate, 25% barrel rate, and 95.8 mph average exit velocity over the last week, showing he is consistently impacting the baseball.
Johnson has had trouble keeping the ball in the yard lately, allowing 1.75 HR/9 over his last five outings.
Play to 25%.
- Time: 10:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ABTV, NBC Sports Philly
- HR picks: 18-91, -7.89 units
Best home run combo for August 29
| Jackson Merrill |
Trade Now 25974x |
| Randy Arozarena |
|
| Bryce Harper |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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