It’s Monday morning baseball from Beantown, as the Boston Red Sox kick off a four-game set with the Cleveland Guardians in the annual Patriots Day game.
Tied for first in the AL Central, Cleveland barely avoided a sweep with an extra-innings win to close out its series with the Yankees. Boston, meanwhile, took two out of three against the Angels to bounce back from a previous sweep at the hands of the Orioles. They’re slight -125 moneyline favorites in the MLB odds.
We’ve got your free Guardians vs Red Sox predictions and MLB picks below, complete with a best bet.
Guardians vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Red Sox moneyline (-125 at DraftKings)
My analysis
With an offense that ranks just outside the Top 10 in almost every notable category, the Cleveland Guardians have leaned on a strong pitching staff to power a 10-5 start. Cleveland has surrendered the third-fewest runs in the majors, and its 3.20 ERA ranks Top 5.
After starting 8-2, though, the pitching has unraveled over the last five games, allowing at least six runs in four, which explains why they've lost three of them.
Xzavion Curry will get his first start of the year, and just the 12th of his career. Last season, he went 3-4 with a 4.07 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 95 innings with the big-league club.
The Boston Red Sox have also been slow out of the gate with the bats, ranking outside the Top 15 of almost all offensive categories, save for home runs, where they are sixth with 20 bombs on the year.
But Boston makes up for it with its work on the mound, currently leading MLB with a 2.54 ERA, while also sitting in the Top 3 in WHIP and opponents’ batting average. The starters are especially potent in the early going, allowing just 19 earned runs in 83 1/3 innings this season.
Monday’s starter, Kutter Crawford, will look for his first win on the year in his fourth start. It hasn’t been for a lack of effort, as Crawford has allowed just one earned run in 15 2/3 innings of work while posting a minuscule 0.57 ERA.
Boston’s pitching should show up, but I’m not so sure how Curry will look in his season debut, and that's where the edge lies between two similar rosters.
He faced the Red Sox twice in relief appearances in 2023 and was tagged for seven hits and a pair of unearned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work, with just three strikeouts. A lack of strikeouts was the tale of the tape for Curry in general, boasting a paltry 6.35 K/9 and 16.6% strikeout rate last season. He doesn't miss bats, and that potential shakiness has me leaning toward the home side.
Guardians vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Red Sox moneyline
Steven Kwan 1+ hits
Jose Ramirez 1+ RBI
Steven Kwan has been a hit machine this season, second in the majors with a .368 average. Cleveland’s leadoff man picked up a hit and scored a run in Sunday's 8-7 win over the Yankees. That gives him hits in nine of the last 10, and Kwan has gone hitless in just two of 14 games so far this season.
Let’s wrap up with Jose Ramirez, who is tied for the Guardians’ team lead with 12 RBI. Ramirez drove in a couple on Sunday, breaking a 3-game stretch where he failed to register an RBI. He typically bats right behind contact machine Kwan, so the opportunities to cash him in could come early and often.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Guardians vs Red Sox odds
Guardians vs Red Sox live odds
Guardians vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-185) | Boston -1.5 (+155)
- Moneyline: Cleveland +100 | Boston -120
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-105) | Under 9.5 (-115)
Guardians vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Guardians are 6-3 following a win this season.
- These teams are 5-5 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
- Cleveland has seen the Under cash in four of its last five games.
- Boston has gone Under the total in three straight games.
Guardians vs Red Sox trend
Boston has hit the Under in its last eight against AL Central opponents. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Red Sox
Guardians vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Monday, 4-15-2024 |
| First pitch: | 11:10 a.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Great Lakes, NESN |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Xzavion Curry (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Kutter Crawford (0-0, 0.57 ERA) |
Guardians vs Red Sox latest injuries
Guardians vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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